After two months of the 2017-18 NBA season, nobody can hide behind a small sample. The basketball world can pick out the best players and teams at this point.
Surprise stars — both experienced and rookies — have emerged around the league. However, a couple players who recently signed big contracts aren’t living up to their deals, and hot starts haven’t led to sustained excellence for a few franchises.
While there’s still time for both positive and negative regression, these are the biggest studs and duds of the season so far.
Stud: Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets GM
Houston is obliterating scoreboards thanks to James Harden, and he’s a deserving MVP candidate with 31.5 points and 9.1 assists on average. But we’ll focus on him plenty for the rest of the season. The pieces Rockets general manager Daryl Morey added this offseason have completed the roster. In addition to the marquee acquisition of Chris Paul, Morey brought Luc Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker to Houston.
Those three players have propelled the defense from average to outstanding. The team’s defensive rating has fallen from 106.4 to 102.4, per NBA.com. Coupled with improved efficiency on offense, the Rockets have become the No. 1 threat to Golden State’s crown.
Dud: OKC’s Big Three
Panic is not necessary. Concern is reasonable. Oklahoma City has typically performed well on the defensive end, but the Big Three of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony aren’t consistently thriving as scorers. All of them are shooting career-worst marks from the floor, and it’s no coincidence the Thunder rank 28th out of 30 teams in true shooting percentage, according to NBA.com.
Since we’re not even at the halfway point, OKC shouldn’t start worrying yet. But if sustained improvement doesn’t come soon, the rumblings of a Paul George trade might start getting louder.
Stud: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Over the last two seasons, LeBron James appeared to be regressing as a shooter. He made just 30.9 percent of his three-point attempts in 2015-16 and an abysmal 67.4 percent at the charity stripe last season. However, the 2017-18 campaign has brought a resurgent LeBron. He’s knocking down 40.1 percent from downtown and has lifted his free-throw clip to 76.9. James is also dishing a personal-best 9.3 assists per game.
Cleveland started slowly, but that wasn’t a LeBron problem. Now that his teammates are playing better, the Cavs are cruising.
Dud: Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers
Let’s be clear: “Dud” does not equate to “bust.” Lonzo Ball has fulfilled his promise as an elite passer, dishing 7.2 assists per game. He sees the floor in ways most players simply never will.
Nevertheless, his problems as a shooter cannot be ignored. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2017 draft has connected on just 26.5 percent beyond the arc despite hoisting nearly five triples per night. He’s also a meager 33.2 overall and 48.6 at the free-throw line. Ball’s form is weird, yes, but the biggest problem is how long it takes him to release a shot. Until that changes, opponents don’t need to defend him as tightly.
Stud: LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard is finally back in the lineup, but the Spurs wouldn’t have navigated his absence so smoothly without LaMarcus Aldridge. Prior to Leonard’s return, the power forward amassed 22.7 points per game on 50.1 percent shooting. Aldridge only missed one game, helping San Antonio register a 19-8 record and stay within striking distance of the Rockets and Warriors in the Western Conference.
If Aldridge can maintain this level of performance when Leonard is off his minutes restriction, the Spurs will be an even greater threat than expected.
Dud: Dion Waiters, Miami Heat
Waiters Island is losing a few inhabitants. Though some fans hoped the late-season surge and $52 million contract had changed the inconsistent shooter, he is what we thought he was. Waiters has provided 14.5 points on average but he’s just 30.9 percent from three-point range and 39.2 percent overall. Last season, the Syracuse product hit a career-best 39.5 percent of his long-distance attempts and was 42.4 percent from the field. Miami will need another post-January explosion from Waiters to reach the playoffs.
Stud: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
You probably know about Kevin Durant’s excellence as a scorer. This season is no different, as he’s piled up 26.1 points and 5.3 assists per game while threatening to post a 50-40-85 campaign. Only Larry Bird, LeBron James and Stephen Curry have ever finished a year with those shooting percentages and averages of 25 points and five assists, per Basketball-Reference.com.
However, Durant has also tallied 2.1 blocks per contest. Opponents are shooting 53.0 percent at the rim, which is the eighth-best mark among players who defend four shots per game within five feet. Durant is a legitimate All-Defense contender.
Dud: George Hill, Sacramento Kings
This isn’t what the Kings anticipated when they signed George Hill, and now they’re caught in a predicament. Hill has mustered just 9.8 points and 2.6 assists per appearance, both of which are about 40 percent lower than his contributions with the Utah Jazz last season. Meanwhile, rookies De’Aaron Fox and Frank Mason have often outplayed Hill. The veteran guard still has value, but Sacramento probably isn’t the best situation for him — and vice versa. If the Kings can match his $20 million salary, Hill could be on the move before the trade deadline.
Stud: Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers
Victor Oladipo’s return to the Hoosier State has exceeded anything we thought possible. The Indiana product has poured in 24.4 points per game, which is a stunning 7.5 points higher than his previous career-best clip. And this isn’t even a minutes thing; Oladipo is averaging 1.2 minutes fewer than that 17.9-point season in 2014-15. The energetic guard is playing at an All-Star level with career-best shooting percentages of 43.3 from beyond the arc and 47.8 overall. Throw in personal-high marks in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, and Oladipo is the surprise of the season.
Dud: Value of Brooklyn’s pick
Imagine the panic Celtics supporters would be going through right now. Plenty of us — whether fans or analysts — thought it curious that Boston sent the Brooklyn Nets’ unprotected 2018 first-round pick to the Cavs along with Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder. But around the one-third mark of the season, the Nets are outperforming expectations. They’re even within shouting distance of the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. While the pick remains a decent asset for Cleveland, what seemed like a potential No. 1 choice is creeping toward top-10 status.
Stud: Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
The 2017-18 season has unleashed The Unicorn in ways we’d never seen on a full-time basis. Kristaps Porzingis is no longer sharing the floor with Carmelo Anthony, and the Latvian forward has assumed control of New York’s offense. Porzingis has contributed 25.5 points per night while shooting career-high clips from three-point range (39.5) and the field (46.5). The Knicks have a 108.5 offensive rating with him on the floor compared to 102.5 when he’s on the bench, per NBA.com. If Porzingis stays healthy, New York will compete for one of the final playoff spots in the East.
Dud: Memphis Grizzlies
Here’s a not-so-fun fact: Memphis has fired two of the last three head coaches in the NBA. David Fizdale lasted just 101 regular-season contests with the Grizzlies, who canned the second-year coach after a 7-12 start that included an eight-game losing streak. That skid continued to 11 before Memphis finally won — and proceeded to drop the next five games. The team has performed even worse since parting with Fizdale. Memphis reportedly has no plans to trade Marc Gasol, but we cannot predict how more losing will affect the front office’s mindset.
Stud: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Are they real contenders in 2017-18? No. Are we enjoying every minute of the new-look 76ers? You bet. Joel Embiid occasionally pops up in headlines because of his interactions on social media, but the 23-year-old center is an absolute star. He’s amassed 24.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game in his second season. Plus, teammate Ben Simmons is a nightly triple-double threat. The 6-foot-10 point guard has provided 17.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 7.8 assists in his debut season. Embiid and Simmons have the franchise thinking about the playoffs for the first time in six years.
Dud: Charlotte Hornets
Kemba Walker is a stud. The problem arises when the Hornets have to score without him. According to NBA.com, Charlotte has a 108.1 offensive rating with Walker on the floor compared to 90.4 when he’s on the sideline. It comes as no surprise Hornets also have the worst bench in the league. The reserve unit has registered an ugly negative-11.4 rating. Charlotte, which is playing without head coach Steve Clifford due to a medical leave of absence, hasn’t owned a record .500 or above since Nov. 1. And that probably won’t change this season.
Stud: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Although the attention on Giannis Antetokounmpo has dwindled, he’s still putting up ridiculous numbers. The Greek Freak has posted 29.8 points on 54.4 percent shooting, adding 10.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game — all of which are career-high marks.
Antetokounmpo has also dished 4.5 assists on average. That versatility is only matched by Larry Bird, David Robinson and Russell Westbrook, according to Basketball-Reference.com, and Giannis is the most efficient shooter of the four. If Antetokounmpo ever develops a three-point shot, he might become unstoppable.
Dud: Los Angeles Clippers
Austin Rivers, try as he might, cannot replace Chris Paul’s efficiency. And injuries, well they stink. What seemed like a playoff-worthy roster has slowly devolved into a banged-up mess of scattered talent. Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley have long-term issues, and Danilo Gallinari is battling a glute injury.
Los Angeles has already experienced losing streaks of nine and four games this season. While the Clips cannot yet be counted out of the playoff race, they’ve fallen well short of realistic expectations.
Stud: Boston Celtics
Kyrie Irving has shined in his role as a primary scorer, but it seems wrong to pick out a single-most important reason for the Celtics’ success. Al Horford continues to be an underrated superstar, while rookie Jayson Tatum has exceeded expectations. The Celtics own the league’s best defensive rating, per NBA.com, and hold a slim lead on the surging Cavs in the East.
Yes, the schedule has been friendly, but Boston has played at a higher level than the NBA world anticipated it would’ve even with a healthy Gordon Hayward. Cleveland may eventually surpass the Celtics in the standings, but they’re a definite contender.
Dud: Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks
Whether it’s a him problem, a them problem or a combination of both, Nerlens Noel isn’t working out with the 2017-18 Mavericks. Last season, Dallas was 10.3 points per 100 possessions better with the center on the floor, according to NBA.com. Prior to his thumb surgery this year, though, the Mavs were a dreadful 22 points worse in Noel’s limited minutes. Even if he’s not traded before his contract expires at the end of the season, it’s hard to imagine Noel staying in Dallas. The 23-year-old has plenty of talent but needs a new situation.
Stud: Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
If you thought Simmons, Dennis Smith Jr. or Jayson Tatum leads all rookies in scoring, that’s a reasonable belief. But the correct choice is Donovan Mitchell. Following a shaky start to his NBA career — he was 1-of-7 from the field in three of his first five games — the Louisville product has rapidly become Utah’s top scorer. He’s averaging 18.1 points on 42.6 percent shooting. Mitchell has eclipsed the 20-point mark 13 times and 30-point barrier on three occasions, including a high of 41. The Jazz miss Hayward, but they’re thrilled to have Mitchell filling the scoring void.
Dud: Orlando Magic
False hope is the worst. The Magic opened the campaign with an 8-4 record but have rapidly tumbled down the standings since then. Injuries haven’t helped, considering the roster has been without key players Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross at various points this season. Rookie forward Jonathan Isaac has missed an entire month, too.
But the Magic have dropped 16 of their last 19 games, and that .158 winning percentage is the NBA’s second-worst mark since the stretch began. Gordon is finally having his breakout season, but Orlando looks destined for another early lottery pick.