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Predicting studs and duds for Christmas Day NBA games

Kevin Durant

Christmas presents can become a lasting memory, but not every gift meets expectations. The five-game NBA slate on Christmas Day will produce the same results.

Many of the league’s best teams are in action, including a rematch of the last three NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. We’re diving into the schedule and projecting which players will stand out on Christmas — and whose holiday will be forgettable.

Stud: Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

Philadelphia hasn’t fared well against stretch 4s lately. Zach Randolph shredded the Sixers for 27 points, Nikola Mirotic posted 22 and Carmelo Anthony shot 11-of-17 for 24 points. Porzingis is arguably the stretchiest in the league, so this could be an unfortunate day for Philly’s bigs. He recently returned from a knee injury and missed all 11 attempts in his first game back, but two full days of rest and a permeable 76ers defense should help Porzingis regain his All-Star form.

Dud: Dario Saric, Philaelphia 76ers

Dario Saric has shaken a relatively uninspiring opening month and started to fill the box score lately. But between Joel Embiid likely returning on Christmas Day and a matchup with Porzingis, Saric will have a smaller role and tough defender. Porzingis has ceded a 42.5 shooting percentage this season, according to NBA.com. In the 15 games Saric hasn’t reached that mark, he’s averaged just 9.1 points per contest. Otherwise, he’s posted 16.6 points. Saric is a quality player, but this is an unfavorable spot for him.

Stud: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant scored no fewer than 31 points in all five NBA Finals games against the Cavs in June. And he gets to shoot more this time? Sign us up. Stephen Curry will remain sidelined due to a sprained right ankle at least through Christmas. In his absence, Durant has regularly launched 20-plus shots compared to 17.5 per game before Curry’s injury. Durant has also stood out as a passer and shot-blocker throughout the campaign, not just recently. Golden State will continue leaning heavily on the Slim Reaper to overcome a similarly surging Cleveland team.

Dud: Kyle Korver, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyle Korver is a three-point weapon for Cleveland, but he’s never stood out against Golden State. During the NBA Finals last season, he mustered 22 total points in five games while shooting 31.3 percent from beyond the arc. Additionally, over the Cavs’ last seven road contests — roughly the last month — Korver reached the 10-point mark just once. He may knock down a couple of timely shots and deserves Golden State’s respect because of that, but Korver probably won’t light up the box score.

Stud: Al Horford, Boston Celtics

He isn’t a prototypical star, but Al Horford is a steady force. The Wizards are probably sick of him, too. He registered 16.7 points and 5.1 assists per game in the Eastern Conference semifinals to help the Celtics eliminate Washington. Boston has a reshaped roster this season, but the problem of dealing with John Wall remains the same. Horford’s passing ability is especially valuable for this showdown, and he’s dished more than six assists per game in December. Even if he doesn’t score a bunch, Horford will be an integral piece of the offense.

Dud: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

Wizards point guard John Wall has his Washington Wizards in title contention.

Although he’s scorched Boston in the past, Bradley Beal may have a rough outing against Jaylen Brown. Among players who defend 2.5 shots per game, the second-year Celtics wing is among the stingiest in the league, according to NBA.com. Opponents aren’t even shooting 40 percent against Brown, whose quickness and length are tough to overcome. Beal’s worst game of the season was a 2-of-11 performance when Jimmy Butler defended the Wizards star, and Brown has the same type of shutdown defensive ability.

Stud: Ryan Anderson, Houston Rockets

Oklahoma City will focus on containing James Harden, and it’s something the Thunder have done relatively well in the past. Between the attention he draws and Chris Paul’s absence, though, the Rockets will rely on their perimeter options to knock down shots. The weak spot of OKC’s defense will be at the 4, and once Ryan Anderson hits a few triples he’ll be tough to stop. Plus, the veteran has buried 44.3 percent of his three-point attempts on the road compare to 34.1 at home this season. Harden should be looking Anderson’s way often.

Dud: Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder

Perhaps Christmas will bring an unexpected gift for Carmelo Anthony, but December has been a frustrating month for the forward. He’s shot below 30 percent from three-point range, also registering a sub-40 percent clip overall. It would be surprising for Carmelo to shake that inefficiency, since the Rockets can shuffle between Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute. Anderson’s length could even be a problem for Carmelo. Houston’s rapid pace affording OKC more possessions than normal is a small reason for optimism, but it’s not very convincing.

Stud: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

Mar 21, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) celebrates his basket in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at Target Center. The San Antonio Spurs beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 100-93. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Lakers have promising players, but the young pieces struggle to protect the rim. Karl-Anthony Towns can dominate down low. Among players who attempt at least five shots within five feet per night, according to NBA.com, Towns is among the league leaders. He’s not far from converting 70 percent of those looks. Plus, Los Angeles will be without center Brook Lopez due to an ankle injury. While not excellent, he was a respectable defender. Towns should cruise to a double-double against the Lakers.

Dud: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Los Angeles Lakers

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will likely receive the Jimmy Butler treatment, and it’s something he hasn’t enjoyed in the past. As a member of the Detroit Pistons when Butler played for the Chicago Bulls, Caldwell-Pope trudged to 7.3 points per game in four clashes last season. He averaged more points against every other NBA team. It’s not a one-year problem, either; KCP shot 35.8 percent against the Bulls in 2015-16. The Lakers should be competitive in this matchup, but their scoring will likely come from elsewhere.

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