Tommy John epidemic not going away
On Wednesday, it was announced that Seattle Mariners lefty Drew Smyly would undergo Tommy John Surgery. Between the majors and minors, Smyly will be the 50th player to undergo the surgery in he calendar year of 2017. By comparison, 83 professional baseball players had the surgery in 2016, with 52 coming before July 1.
It’s been perhaps baseball’s greatest trend of the last 20 years and is clearly not going away.
In one respect, it makes no sense. The overwhelming majority of Tommy John patients are pitchers. Major League Baseball is incredibly dependent on pitch counts and the lower you go, the more strict the pitch counts are. That should mean less strain on the arms (or specifically elbows) of these pitchers. But clearly, the Tommy John epidemic is not going away. So, what gives?
One idea is that by and large, Tommy John Surgery has a high success rate. While it takes more than a year away from a pitcher’s career, plenty of pitchers have come back from the surgery and been as good as ever. The more success stories that we see, the less hesitant people will be to undergo the surgery.
But in truth, it’s a sign of a more disturbing trend that starts well before these players reach professional baseball. All sports, including baseball, are becoming more specialized. Rather than playing baseball in the spring and summer, kids are playing baseball essentially year around. The human arm wasn’t exactly designed to throw fastballs to begin with. It certainly wasn’t designed to throw them throughout the year. By the time these pitchers get into their early 20’s, their arms are worn down, if they haven’t been already.
Until that trend changes, don’t expect the Tommy John epidemic to go away any time soon.