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Ten bold MLB predictions for second month of 2017 season

Joe Maddon

6. Miguel Sano will continue hot streak

Apr 22, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Miguel Sano (22) hits a double in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins third baseman entered 2017 with a career .249/.346/.489 slash line. Admittedly, when someone with that career line starts a season .314/.443/.686, the first thing we want to do is get the regression police on the phone. Something has got to give.

But as was the case with Keuchel, we’re not seeing a sharp regression in Sano’s future. In fact, we’re seeing more of the same.

Consider some of the following points.

Sano is walking in nearly 19 percent of his plate appearances. That’s well up from an anemic 10.9 percent in 2016 and even significantly better than 2015’s more respectable 15.8 percent. Extra walks will not only help an OBP, but they’re also a sign of a hitter being more selective.

Another good sign of a more selective hitter is a declining strikeout rate, which Sano has. Sano has struck out in 33 percent of his plate appearances, and while that’s not exactly a low total, it is down. In 2016, he struck out 36 percent of the time. In 2015, he K’d in 35.5 percent of his plate appearances.

Of course, the last piece of the puzzle is that Sano is not only making contact, but better contact. His line drive rate of 23.5 percent is well up from 2016’s total of 20.2 percent. Strangely, Sano is actually hitting fewer line drives in 2017 than he did in 2015. But he’s hitting significantly more fly balls (47.1 percent in 2017, 42 percent in 2015) and his home run to fly ball rate is much better (33.3 percent in 2017, 26.5 percent in 2015). So, while the line drive rate is lower, the loud contact rate is much higher.

Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs detailed a change in Sano’s approach. Thus far, it’s working.

Regression is logical for most guys. But we think Sano will buck that trend.

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