4. Dallas Keuchel continues progress towards another Cy Young
Houston’s ace was unconscious in the season’s opening month. He concluded April with a spotless 5-0 record, a 1.21 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 3.37 FIP. We could also point out that he’s thrown a quality start in all six outings, but even that’s misleading. A quality start is six or more innings pitched with no more than three earned runs allowed. Keuchel has gone at least seven innings in all six of his starts and has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of them.
But it’s not just the results that impress us. It’s how they’ve been achieved.
His 2.22 BB/9 rate is solid but not surprising. Even in a down year in 2016, Keuchel had a well above average 2.57 BB/9.
What’s a really good sign is that opponents are simply not making loud contact against Keuchel. His line drive rate (per Fangraphs) of 14.2% is even better than the 18.7 Keuchel posted in 2015 when he won the American League Cy Young award.
A good BB/9 rate shows that a pitcher has good control. The positives of that are quickly offset if his pitches are finding the middle of the plate and being smacked around the yard. But a good line drive rate indicates that the pitcher has good command. That’s a lot harder to adjust to. That’s a pitcher who can not only throw strikes, but throw them in the right spots.
Now, make no mistake, we’re not thinking that Keuchel is going to continue at this specific pace and challenge Bob Gibson’s ridiculous 1968 ERA of 1.12. That’s just unrealistic for a starter in this era. But if you’re looking at Keuchel’s April and thinking that a sharp regression is order, think again.
We think May is going to be another step towards a second American League Cy Young Award in three years.