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Five most overrated NFL head coaches entering 2017

NFL head coaches Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengals

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts

Pagano was given the gift of Andrew Luck and has failed to deliver, as the Colts have missed the playoffs the past two seasons. It’s unfair to blame Pagano for Indy’s roster-building — that falls on Ryan Grigson, who was rightfully fired, a year too late, after the 2016 season. Grigson tried and failed (horribly) to build a Super Bowl contender around Luck, but don’t let that overshadow Pagano’s own failings.

The Colts may not have had a championship roster, but Luck alone gives them a roster good enough to make the playoffs in the woeful AFC South. Yet, they failed to do so. We can give Pagano a pass for 2015, when Luck got hurt and played just seven games and Grigson set him up for failure.

But last season, the responsibility rests on Pagano. The Colts missed the postseason by a single game and one they could have won easily: a Sunday night matchup against the Texans. A win would have put them past Houston and won them the division at then end of the year, as they would have had the tiebreaker over the Tennessee Titans.

The Colts were up 13-3 at halftime and 13-9 late in the third quarter with the ball on Houston’s eight-yard line on 4th & inches. Pagano made the right decision to go for it but proceeded to put Luck in shotgun and throw the ball. Houston outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus easily came in and beat tight end Jack Doyle at the line for a sack.

The Colts somehow recovered from that, held a 23-16 lead and the ball, with just over two minutes to go. Easy, right? Just kill the clock. Houston had two timeouts left. All the Colts needed was a first down.

Pagano managed to screw it up by passing on second down. Wouldn’t you know, Luck got sacked and the Colts suddenly faced 3rd & 20. At that point, when there was a real argument for passing before the two-minute warning, Pagano put the ball on the ground for a one-yard loss. Brock Osweiler (BROCK OSWEILER!!!) proceeded to lead a game-tying drive. Then, in overtime, he led a game-winning drive. Pagano’s game management cost Indy the game, and with it, the division title.

Pagano’s handling of playcalling and timeout management is among the worst in the league. His offensive philosophy, based on press conferences and games themselves, seems to be that you win when you run, something proven wrong years ago. He also frequently puts Andrew Luck in poor positions to succeed. The Houston game is just one example of poor game management, but over the course of the season, Pagano seems to mess up more often than he succeeds.

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