Michael Thomas, wide receiver, New Orleans Saints
Thomas’ 1,137 receiving yards didn’t just lead all rookie receivers, it lapped the field, with Sterling Shepard in second with a relatively meager 683 yards. He also finished top-three among all receivers in both DYAR and DVOA and ranked sixth in PFF grading. The second-rounder was easily one of the best picks in the draft and will likely have a long career.
However, after the departure of Brandin Cooks via trade (more on that here), Thomas is the Saints’ No. 1 receiver. That will get him more targets from Drew Brees, but it will also result in Thomas drawing more attention from opposing defenses.
For a segment of last season — before he burst on the scene — Thomas wasn’t even being guarded by No. 2 corners against man defense teams. Now, he’ll be guarded by the best corners in the league. That’s a big adjustment for a second-year player, even one as good as Thomas, and even with a quarterback as good as Brees.
Cooks went for 1,173 yards last season. Don’t underestimate the impact of his loss, not just on New Orleans’ offense as a whole, but on Thomas. Not every team plays man defense, and not every team that does has their best corner shadow a receiver. But this will still be an adjustment for Thomas.
After such a great rookie year, Thomas was already going to see defenses do more to stop him. With Cooks out of the way, there’s one less obstacle for those defenses to get around in facing the Saints, which only makes it easier to pay attention to Thomas.
Considering that, a sophomore slump is almost requisite.