The NBA Draft Lottery will be held on Tuesday. And let’s just say Dallas Mavericks legend Dirk Nowitzki is not optimistic about his team’s chances.

Given that it’s not actually possible, something like that happening certainly would not quell Mark Cuban’s paranoia. So, well played, Dirk.

It’s true that Dallas does not have a great history with the lottery. Its last pick in the top-three came in 1994 when Jason Kidd was selected second overall. Even Dirk was taken ninth overall by the Milwaukee Bucks before getting traded to the Mavericks.

But if we follow recent history, Nowitzki and his Mavs actually have reasons to be optimistic.

“Twice in the last nine years, the team with the ninth-best chance to win the lottery has pulled off the extraordinary and moved up to take the No. 1 pick: the Bulls in 2008 and the Cavs in 2014,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted. “This year, the Dallas Mavericks sit in that chair.”

So, Nowitzki just needs to emulate whatever members of those teams did on lottery day.

Statistically, Dallas has an 81.3 percent chance of holding the nine pick. It has a 6.1 percent chance of moving into the top three, and a 12.6 percent chance of falling to 10 or 11.