Tier three: Near contenders
14. St. Louis Cardinals
You might want to take a picture of this. The Cardinals wont often be this low in anyone’s power rankings. Entering 2017, we see St. Louis as a good team that could make the playoffs, but it’s not a real championship contender anymore. Adam Wainwright’s best years appear behind him. We can say the same thing about Yadier Molina. Michael Wacha and Trevor Rosenthal once looked like cornerstone arms. But entering 2017, both have massive question marks around them.
In general, that applies to the whole team. The Cardinals are not bad by any means. But it will be an uphill battle to even make the playoffs, let alone compete for a championship.
Prediction: 83-79, second place, National League Central
13. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta, meanwhile, is a team on the rise. The Braves steadily improved throughout 2016 and played at a 93-win pace following the promotion of star prospect Dansby Swanson. We expect Atlanta to compete for (and even earn) a playoff spot, but even if that can’t quite happen, a leap is in the cards.
Not only did the Braves improve throughout 2016, but they improved in the offseason, as well. Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips aren’t superstars anymore, but they are solid veteran bats. Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey will, if nothing else, provide veteran leadership to a young rotation. Atlanta has been down for a while but enters 2017 with a solid roster.
Prediction: 85-77, T-third place, National League East
12. Toronto Blue Jays
Focusing on the positives, Toronto still has one of baseball’s better starting rotations. With Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista anchoring, the Blue Jays also have a potent lineup. But Edwin Encarnacion is now gone. That’s an issue and not a small one, either.
From 2012-2016, Encarnacion hit 193 home runs while slashing at .272/.267/.544. Over the same stretch, Kendrys Morales — the man replacing Encarnacion in Toronto — hit 105 bombs and slashed at .268/.328/.448. Again, the Blue Jays can certainly pitch, but Toronto’s rebirth has been aided greatly by its offense. That offense is now missing one of its key bats.
Prediction: 82-80, third place, American League East
11. New York Yankees
After years of relying too much on over-the-hill veterans, the Yankees are back and must be taken seriously in 2017. Gary Sanchez is a stud. Greg Bird is back, and by the looks of his spring training he is picking up right where he left off in 2015 before his injury.
So about the @Yankees’ first base job …
Greg Bird's got it.
HR No. 1: https://t.co/Jdo1mk3WYW
HR No. 2: https://t.co/WpEakDq48R pic.twitter.com/F5ZBqFn9Wh
— MLB (@MLB) March 22, 2017
Bringing Aroldis Champan back was controversial for his off-field past, but there’s little doubt that he and Dellin Betances are one of baseball’s best late inning 1-2 combos.
The starting pitching is the issue and why we can’t rank the Bombers any higher. Outside of Masahiro Tanaka, we just can’t depend on anything good from New York starters. Not for 162 games. The lineup and bullpen will make the team respectable. But for the Yankees to go to the next level, the starters will need to be much better than we’re expecting.
Prediction: 86-76, second place, American League East
10. Seattle Mariners
No team has a longer postseason drought than the Mariners. This roster could (and should) change that. Danny Valencia, Jean Segura and Jarrod Dyson are strong additions to a potent lineup that already included Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano. The Felix Hernandez-led starting rotation is also solid, even if King Felix isn’t quite what he was a few years ago.
The problems come in the bullpen, especially when bridging the gap to Edwin Diaz. Guys like Dan Altavilla and Marc Rzepczynski aren’t exactly going to make people forget about Kansas City’s championship relievers in 2014 and 2015. Also, we can’t ignore the age issue. Cano is 34 and Cruz is 36. Power tends to be the last thing to leave hitters. Still, both men are hitting an age where declining isn’t exactly an unrealistic possibility.
Prediction: 87-75, third place, American League West
9. Texas Rangers
We expect to see the Mariners in the playoffs in 2017, playing the Wild Card Game in Texas. There’s a lot to like with the Rangers. They have a lineup filled with guys who can hit 20 or more bombs. They have a good mixture of youth (Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar, Mazara) and veterans (Mike Napoli, Elvs Andrus, Adrian Beltre). The front end of Texas’ rotation is also strong, with Cole Hamels and Yu Davish leading the way.
But after Darvish, the rotation drops in a big way. As if that wasn’t enough, the bullpen can’t be depended upon at all. The Rangers are a likely playoff team again in 2017. But if they’re thinking about a deep run, filling both of those holes is a must.
Prediction: 88-74, second place, American League West