Football is all about stats and matchups. This is only magnified when two elite teams take on one another on the biggest stage football itself has to offer.
Heading into Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, a lot of the focus has been on two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Can Tom Brady earn his fifth Super Bowl title? Will Matt Ryan finally break through with a Lombardi Trophy?
These are nice narratives. They give us something to talk about in the two weeks between Conference Championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday. But there’s a whole lot more in play here when looking at this specific matchup.
New England boasts the league’s top-scoring defense. Meanwhile, Ryan and the Falcons’ offense finished the regular season with the most points scored. What does history tell us about this?
Looking further into the stats, how did each quarterback perform on third down and in the red zone? We’re these defenses solid in similar situations?
Here’s a look at the 10-most important stats heading into Super Bowl LI between the NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons and AFC Champion New England Patriots.
1. League’s top offense vs league’s top defense
For just the sixth time since the merger, the league’s No. 1 scoring offense takes on its top-scoring defense in the Super Bowl. History surely is on the Patriots’ side here.
Of the previous five matchups, the team with the top defense came out on top four times. The only exception here was when Joe Montana’s San Francisco 49ers defeated John Elway’s Denver Broncos by the score of 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV.
History itself is also split on whether this will be a close game. Only two of the previous five Super Bowls pitting the best against the best were decided by one score. The best matchup came when the New York Giants defeated the Buffalo Bills, 20-19, in Super Bowl XX.
The most-recent matchup pitting the top offense against the top defense saw the Seattle Seahawks and their Legion of Boom wipe the floor with the Denver Broncos, 43-8, back in Super Bowl XLVIII.
The Atlanta Falcons’ offense averaged an absurd 33.8 points per game during an 11-win regular season. To put that into perspective, it’s the highest-scoring regular season for any team since Brady and the Pats put up an average of 36.8 points during their perfect regular season run back in 2007.
On the other hand, New England yielded less than 16 points per game during the regular season. In fact, opponents put up 10 points or less four different times.
2. Tom Brady’s elite third-down performance
One of the primary reasons New England’s was able to go 14-2 during the regular season was due to the fact that it held on to the ball at a great clip during the regular season. Overall the Pats ranked fifth in the NFL in time of possession and fourth in third-down percentage.
Of course, most of this had to do with Brady’s excellence on third downs. He posted an NFL-best 127.7 quarterback rating on said downs. To put this into perspective, Aaron Rodgers finished second a full 10 points behind Brady. When all was said and done, Brady threw 14 touchdowns compared to one interception on third downs this past season.
Unfortunately for the Falcons’ defense, they struggled in this aspect of the game. They yielded the seventh-highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL.
If the Patriots are able to be successful on third down, it will keep Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense off the field. That will go a long way in New England winning the time of possession battle, likely dominating the outcome of Super Bowl LI in the process.
3. Both defenses struggled covering running backs
There’s definitely an under-the-radar dynamic to look at here. We already know what Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman bring to the table for the Falcons. Also important to note, LeGarrette Blount led all NFL running backs with 18 rushing touchdowns during the regular season.
On the other hand, both teams possess capable receivers out of the backfield. Both Freeman and Coleman added an entirely new dimension the Falcons’ offense with their ability to catch the ball. Meanwhile, Dion Lewis and James White have proven quite dangerous as receiving threats.
This doesn’t bode well for the defenses come Sunday. After all, Atlanta yielded the third-most receiving yards to running backs during the regular season with New England giving up the fifth most. That’s something we simply haven’t seen covered in the lead up to the Super Bowl.
As it relates to each team’s success throwing to running backs, we can safely say both Tom Brady and Matt Ryan were elite in this regard. Brady completed 70 percent of his passes to players out of the backfield during the regular season. For his part, Ryan was upwards of nearly 80 percent completion with a 120.5 quarterback rating when targeting running backs.
4. Atlanta also struggled covering tight ends
This unit yielded the sixth-most receiving yards and a 63 percent completion mark to tight ends during the regular year. More than that, tight ends averaged 11.5 yards per reception against the Falcons. That was the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
While New England won’t have All Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski in the mix come Sunday, Martellus Bennett has more than proven himself capable. He caught 75 percent of the 73 passes thrown in his direction during the regular year. Bennett also put up a career-high seven touchdowns while averaging nearly 13 yards per catch.
It’s going to be up to a combination of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal to get the job done here for Atlanta. After all, a lot of the team’s focus will be on stopping Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan on the outside.
5. Julian Edelman’s touchdown problem
Not a single person out here can say that Edelman didn’t have a strong 2016 season. Here’s a dude that put up over 1,100 yards while catching 62 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. He was also the third-most targeted receiver in the NFL, meaning defenses were honing in on him throughout the season.
The issue here is that Edelman caught just three touchdowns to go with his 98 receptions. That led to a dead-last ranking when it comes to touchdowns per reception among the top 32 receivers who qualified.
New England surely has other ways to score. In fact, Blount had 13 touchdowns on short-yardage situations, ranking him second among qualified candidates. This is likely where the Patriots’ focus will be come Sunday. Though, it’s also going to be a major focus of the Falcons’ defense.
6. Strength against Strength
A lot of the talk surrounding Atlanta heading into this one has been on Matt Ryan and the team’s passing game. That makes a ton of sense considering Ryan himself had an MVP-caliber regular season and is coming off two consecutive dominating playoff performances.
Though, Freeman and Coleman absolutely dominated on the ground. The two combined for 19 rushing touchdowns on 345 attempts during the regular year. Needless to say, they were elite when it came to getting the ball into the end zone.
On the other hand, New England’s defense yielded just six rushing touchdowns on 365 attempts. That’s an average of one score per 60.8 carries, the No. 1 mark in the NFL.
With Malcolm Butler lining up against Julio Jones, the Falcons’ focus here could be on the ground when it comes to red-zone opportunities. As good as they have been in that category, New England’s defense has been just as good.
7. Atlanta’s pass defense problem
There are so many levels to this. Atlanta was simply disastrous against the pass during the regular season. It was magnified when Pro Bowler Desmond Trufant went down to injury back in Week 9, and it should be a major issue here.
All said, Altanta’s defense yielded the fifth-most passing touchdowns, fifth-most passing yards and ranked in the bottom 11 in both quarterback rating and completion percentage allowed. Adding even more fuel to this, Atlanta finished the regular season having given up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The only team that finished behind this unit was the one-win Cleveland Browns.
This would normally be a major issue in any playoff game. That’s only magnified by the fact that Atlanta is taking on a quarterback in Tom Brady who threw 28 touchdowns compared to two interceptions. And while the Falcons did well against the likes of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, this is surely something to watch.
8. Patriots’ defensive struggles in the red zone
For as good as Matt Patricia’s defense was during the regular season, it surely did struggle in the red zone. Those struggles were primarily against the pass, as the Patriots yielded the second-highest yards per completion mark in the NFL (7.9 yards).
That’s a full yard higher than the league average. This doesn’t seem like a big deal until we realize the red zone is made up of only 20 yards.
It’s also a major issue considering New England is taking on a quarterback in Matt Ryan who put up 29 touchdowns compared to one interception in the red zone. In fact, over 62 percent of his pass attempts in the red zone either went for touchdowns or first downs.
9. Falcons fourth quarter meltdown?
Atlanta outscored opponents by an average of nearly 12 points per game in the first three quarters during the regular season. That’s most definitely some dominating stuff there. Unfortunately, the Falcons were outscored by an average of nearly a field goal in the final stanza. This is not a recipe for success against upper-echelon NFL teams.
The interesting dynamic here is that New England only outscored its opponents by an average of less than a half of point during the fourth quarter.
Where the Patriots earned their cash was in the first quarter, especially in blowouts. Tom Brady and Co. outscored their opponents by a combined 98 points in the opening stanza during the regular season.
10. Matt Ryan and Tom Brady dominate in the clutch
It stands to reason that both of these quarterbacks would be dominating with the game on the line. After all, they are the top two MVP candidates. But the numbers here are just absurd.
Brady completed 64 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the final stanza. He also failed to turn the ball over on 116 fourth-quarter touches.
On the other hand, Ryan completed 60 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three picks in the final quarter. Those three interceptions might not be too great, but it’s important to note that two of those picks came with Atlanta leading by double digits.
Thanks to eDraft and Inside Edge for some of the stats provided in this article.