The NFL will experience a changing of the guard among quarterbacks over the next half-decade as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and others suit up for the final time.
Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton are obvious choices for the top of the rankings, but which gunslinger would you want to start a team? And who are the best quarterbacks of the rest?
To be eligible for inclusion, a player must be under 30 years old when the 2016 campaign starts. Mid-season birthdays would’ve been ignored, but no player was affected in that way.
Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor narrowly missed the cut.
10. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Cousins and Taylor assembled encouraging years, while Bortles put up big numbers. Unless you’re a fan of their respective teams, though, it’s easier to be confident in Marcus Mariota.
Mariota appeared in 12 games as a rookie, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,818 yards and 19 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Considering he accomplished that with Delanie Walker and a mediocre receiving corps, Mariota provided an encouraging year for his future.
Plus, the Oregon product hardly utilized his running ability. That dimension of Mariota’s game is practically untouched — though it may continue that way since the Titans hired Mike Mularkey, perhaps the most conservative and nauseating hire of the offseason.
Nevertheless, the 22-year-old will start to flash greatness when Tennessee improves its offensive line and group of pass-catchers.
9. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fellow first-year standout Jameis Winston could also benefit from better surrounding targets. Still, the Buccaneers quarterback performed well enough to earn a trip to the Pro Bowl as a replacement.
He became the third rookie in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards, finishing with 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Winston also tallied 210 yards and six more scores on the ground.
The 22-year-old has a top-tier target in Mike Evans, but that’s basically it for weapons. Injuries plagued Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, leaving running back Charles Sims as the No. 2 receiver.
Once Tampa complements Winston with an upgraded (and healthy) unit, his production will be even more impressive.
8. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
The vocal majority of the Dolphins fan base wants to move on from Ryan Tannehill. If new head coach Adam Gase can’t fix the Texas A&M product, that would be a prudent decision.
After all, Gase has catered to the strengths of Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, who in 2015 assembled the most efficient season of his 10-year career.
Tannehill, despite getting sacked (184) more than any other quarterback during his four seasons combined, protects the football. During 2014 and 2015, he racked up 8,705 total yards and 53 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions and five lost fumbles.
Gase will design the offensive system to fit Tannehill’s strengths — which, contrary to popular belief, is not only the short-passing game — and Miami should see a dramatic improvement in its 27-year-old franchise quarterback over the next couple seasons.
7. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford is essentially the definition of gunslinger. His 592 attempts in 2015 was a career-low mark as a full-time starter.
The recent season initially was unkind to Stafford, who threw 11 interceptions as Detroit slogged to a 1-7 opening. After the franchise fired predictable offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, though, Stafford reminded the NFL world why his potential is so appealing.
During the final eight games, he racked up 2,179 yards and 19 touchdowns, tossing only two picks. The Lions ended the year 6-2, and one loss was the miraculous Hail Rodgers — so Stafford played well enough to win.
Stafford has guided Detroit to a pair of playoff appearances. With or without Calvin Johnson moving forward, the almost-28-year-old is talented enough to take the Lions back to the postseason within a couple years.
6. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater is the under-30 version of Alex Smith: Game manager.
Although that label sometimes gets misconstrued as an insult, it shouldn’t be. Both Bridgewater and Smith helped their squad reach the postseason during the 2015 campaign.
Bridgewater, who fell to No. 32 overall in the 2014 NFL draft because of a shaky pro day, small hands and skinny knees — it was stupid then, and it’s even stupider now — fits Minnesota’s run-first offense. He completed 65.3 percent of his passes and recorded 17 total touchdowns this past season.
The 23-year-old is headed to the Pro Bowl as a replacement. When the Vikings give him better options than Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright to complement Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, Bridgewater will take that next step like Smith did with Jeremy Maclin.
5. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Remember how the Cleveland Browns passed on Derek Carr three times during the 2014 NFL draft? Good times, man.
Oakland executed the “easy on paper” plan last year, adding a couple talented offensive linemen, a clear No. 1 receiver and a respectable No. 2 option. The result? Carr excelled.
The soon-to-be 25-year-old notched 3,987 yards and 32 touchdowns. Acquiring Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree paid off for the franchise, which had its best season since 2011.
Carr is set to enter the prime of his career, and the roster is continually improving. The Raiders haven’t made the playoffs since 2002. That is likely to change with Carr at quarterback.
4. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Framing is important when it comes to Andy Dalton. On one hand, his team has never missed the playoffs over a five-year stretch. On the other, Dalton has never won a postseason game.
Consequently, an important question arose prior to the 2014 season: Should a franchise be content to employ a quarterback who might not be good enough to win a Super Bowl? Or is it scared of the potential replacements?
Well, Dalton had a better chance than ever to prove doubters wrong, but a broken thumb on his throwing hand ended his year before the postseason. He connected on a career-high 66.1 percent of attempts, registering 3,250 yards and 25 touchdowns to just nine interceptions.
If the 28-year-old regains his 2015 form, Dalton will be a dangerous quarterback throughout the duration of his once-seemingly-crazy-now-a-bargain $96 million contract.
3. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Provided that Andrew Luck doesn’t explode due to a lacerated kidney, he’ll continue fulfilling his billing as the rare “guaranteed to not bust” prospect.
But we’re still waiting for the efficient and elite star to show up. In 61 career games, Luck has thrown 67 interceptions — 12 of which came during six total playoff contests.
A shift in play-calling and mechanical tweaks can help fix the issue, but the Colts will take the good with the bad. They registered an 11-5 record in each of Luck’s three healthy seasons and advanced one round farther in the playoffs each time.
Indianapolis has the skill-position talent to win a Super Bowl. Whenever the franchise decides to give the 26-year-old a decent offensive line, the NFL will likely watch 2012’s sure thing hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
2. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
How do you pick between Russell Wilson and Cam Newton? The simple and correct answer is “They’re both really, really awesome, and it doesn’t matter.” But that’s a lukewarm and boring sports take, isn’t it?
Newton, 26, is unquestionably the king of the 2015 season, especially now that the only other remaining gunslinger is the ghost of Peyton Manning’s ghost. The eccentric dual-threat quarterback publicly enjoys the sport more than anyone, which is apparently a crime to society and CenturyLink Field.
During the regular season, Newton guided the Panthers to a 15-1 record while amassing 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns through the air. He added 636 yards and 10 scores as a runner.
While Carolina has managed three consecutive playoff appearances, 2015 was Newton’s first transcendent season behind center. But it certainly won’t be his last.
1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the significant appeal of recency bias, Wilson gets the nod as the No. 1 quarterback under 30 years old.
The dual-threat dynamo has a Super Bowl ring and helped Seattle reach another NFC Championship. He’s averaged 4,101 total yards and scored 29.5 touchdowns per year, never tossing more than 10 interceptions in a season.
Injuries to Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham as well as a putrid offensive line provided a glimpse into how dominant Wilson can be. He racked up 28 touchdowns to only four interceptions over the final nine games of 2015.
Wilson is a game-changing player who has asserted himself as the exception to nearly every quarterback rule, and the 27-year-old is just getting started.