While the MLB hot stove season is not over yet, many of the best available players have either chosen new homes, or stayed at their old ones.
So, which teams are the biggest winners of the 2015-2016 MLB hot stove season? Which ones are the biggest losers? Today, we answer those questions with a look at the offseasons of 10 teams.
Before we get going, one more point must be made.
Winning the hot stove season doesn’t mean it’s time to start planning a victory parade. Recent MLB history is filled with teams that added big talent in the off-season and fizzled (2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays, 2015 Padres and Red Sox), and other teams, like the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals, lost Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols and still ended up a game away from the World Series.
From what we know now, though, these are the biggest winners and losers of the MLB hot stove season.
Winners: Atlanta Braves
We start with the only team on this list that can’t really be considered a contender yet still landed a great trade for a rebuilding project.
They traded Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and while Miller is a fine pitcher, the Braves got quite a haul in return. It starts with Ender Inciarte, who’s only 25 and will likely be the Braves center fielder in 2016.
They also landed two guys who have been first round picks over the last three years.
Aaron Blair was a compensation first round pick in 2013, and judging by his Minor League career there’s no reason to think that he won’t be an impact pitcher pretty soon, even in 2016. That already seems like a lot, and we haven’t even gotten to Dansby Swanson, who was the first overall pick in June’s draft.
By the time SunTrust Park opens in 2017, Inciarte, Blair, and Swanson could all be on the Atlanta Braves Major League roster. Three guys who are at least future impact players for one good starter is a good trade for a rebuilding team.
Losers: Arizona Diamondbacks
Where there’s a winner, there must be a loser. While the Arizona Diamondbacks could be applauded for spending money this offseason, they didn’t spend it wisely.
Zack Greinke is 32 and was signed by Arizona to a six-year deal worth more than $206 million. As Greinke had received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, the signing also cost Arizona their first-round pick in the 2016 draft.
As we already discussed, the Diamondbacks also gave up two first rounders and a quality outfielder to land Shelby Miller. If you’re scoring at home, that’s a loss of three first round picks for a team that went 79-83.
Now, the pieces are in place for the D-Backs to be good, certainly much better than 79-83. Still, they still probably need 1-2 quality arms in the bullpen and an extra bat to be true contenders.
Considering what they gave up this offseason, winning a World Series almost seems mandatory for these moves to make sense. That’s an awful lot of pressure to put on a team that hasn’t won more than 81 games since 2011.
Winners: Chicago Cubs
The 2015 Chicago Cubs were not far from being a championship team. They lacked pitching depth in both the starting rotation and bullpen, which reared its ugly head against the New York Mets in the NLCS. They put a dent in both of those problems by signing John Lackey and trading for Adam Warren.
Perhaps best of all, the additions of Lackey and outfielder Jason Heyward strengthened the Cubs, while simultaneously hurting the rival St. Louis Cardinals. I wouldn’t exactly expect to see St. Louis in the cellar, but that’s a big win for Chicago.
The addition of Ben Zobrist also gives the Cubs tremendous flexibility. Zobrist is incredibly versatile so if Chicago wanted to make a big trade to further upgrade the pitching, they could dangle either Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.
If you’re a Cubs fan, a healthy bit of skepticism is natural, as you’ve had your heart broken so often over the last century that it’s hard to be too hopeful. But as they stand right now, the 2016 Cubs are built to play even deeper into October.
Losers: Toronto Blue Jays
On July 30, 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired David Price from the Detroit Tigers. At the time of the trade, they were in second place in the American League East and trailed by six games. They ended up winning the American League East by six games, meaning they outplayed the New York Yankees by 12 games over two months.
David Price doesn’t get all of the credit for that but as you can see, Price has not only been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last six seasons, but was great for the Blue Jays over the final two months.
That’s a lot of production lost.
Not only did Toronto not bring Price back, but they didn’t sign any pitcher. Marcus Stroman coming back will help, but the loss of Price will badly hurt a team that wasn’t exactly rich with pitching to begin with.
Barring a trade, the best they can hope for at this point is to sign someone like Yovani Gallardo or Wei-Yin Chen and hope they can come close to what Price did.
Making matters worse is the fact that Price signed with a division rival.
Winners: Boston Red Sox
From Price’s old team to his new one.
Like the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Boston Red Sox spent a lot of money on a starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30, but there are a few distinctions.
One, the Red Sox did not lose a 2016 first-round pick on David Price. The Diamondbacks did with Zack Greinke.
Two, the contract with Price has a player option after three years. If Price pitches well for them for three years, he can opt out after 2018 and sign elsewhere. Since Price is a few years younger than Greinke, who should himself be fine for 2-3 years, that’s a strong possibility.
Three, perhaps most importantly, the Red Sox have generally brought in far more revenue than the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks gave themselves a small window to win a World Series and mortgaged much of the future to do so. The Red Sox didn’t do that.
With the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, Boston also bolstered a bullpen that was one of the worst in baseball a season ago.
Like the Diamondbacks, these moves won’t look quite as good if the Red Sox don’t win a championship. But Boston has more of a winning pedigree to fall back on and more resources to amend the problems if things don’t go well. As such, the Sox are definite winners of the 2015-2016 hot stove season.
Losers: Los Angeles Dodgers
There’s just no way to spin it, losing Zack Greinke is going to hurt. The loss may be somewhat negated by the signings of Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda, but it’s hard to make up for the loss of one of the game’s best five starting pitchers.
The bigger issue for the Los Angeles Dodgers surrounds Yasiel Puig. An investigative report from Scott Miller of Bleacher Report paints a murky situation with the Dodgers and the star outfielder. Andy Van Slyke also had some scathing things to say about Puig in an interview with Frank Cusumano on CBS Sports Radio 920 in St. Louis.
“This is just between you and I. When the best player – the highest paid player on the Los Angeles Dodgers – goes to the GM and…is asked what are (the needs of the Los Angeles Dodgers), this particular highest-paid player said, ‘The first thing you need to do is get rid of Puig.’ That’s all you need to know.”
We’re not totally sure how Andy Van Slyke thought that on-air comments would be “just between you and I,” but we digress.
It doesn’t take a private investigator to figure out that Clayton Kershaw is the man who Van Slyke was referring to, as he’s by far the Dodgers highest paid and best player. Given that Scott Van Slyke, Andy’s son, is on the Dodgers, those comments have a great deal of weight to them.
The Dodgers have already been playoff underachievers over the last three years. If there’s a real dilemma with Puig, it’s only going to get worse. Do they keep him and risk further division in the clubhouse, or trade the supremely talented player and risk him being a perennial All-Star for the next decade?
This has not been a great offseason for the Dodgers. On the other hand, their rivals can say the exact opposite.
Winners: San Francisco Giants
In a way, the San Francisco Giants are winners by default. If two of their biggest division rivals are losers, the Giants are winners, but that’s not all that’s in play here. San Francisco also loaded up and improved on a team that contended for much of 2015.
Aside from Madison Bumgarner, the 2015 Giants lacked strong solid pitching. The acquisitions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija figure to change that.
Granted, Samardzija didn’t have a great year in 2015. But a few things need to be considered with him.
Samardzija is moving back to the National League, playing for a team with better defense. AT&T Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league while U.S. Cellular Field is one of the worst, and Buster Posey is one of the best defensive catchers in the game.
Furthermore, Dave Righetti is one of the best pitching coaches in the game. Samardzija can definitely improve enough to be a strong No. 3 starter.
The Giants also bolstered their offense and outfield with the addition of Denard Span, who can play both left field and center field at the spacious AT&T Park and bat towards the top of the order. With Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco on the roster, Span won’t need to play every day, greatly minimizing his risk of injury.
San Francisco won the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014. They’re in position to give it another strong run in 2016.
Losers: New York Mets
Postseason heroics aside, the move from Daniel Murphy to Neil Walker at second base is nothing worse than a lateral one for the New York Mets. The rest of the offseason moves, unfortunately, are quite a bit different.
As an appetizer, we’ll first look at the decision to sign Asdrubal Cabrera as the shortstop. If they hadn’t acquired Walker and Cabrera was playing second, this wouldn’t be such an issue. But Cabrera is one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game.
With Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Matt Harvey, along with Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler, New York is definitely dependent on pitching, and that cause is not aided by a below average defensive shortstop.
The bigger problem is the likely loss of Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a free agent, and while he could conceivably end up back with the Mets, it doesn’t seem likely.
Yoenis Cespedes market taking shape. Source: CWS & BAL emerging as leaders for now. LAA & SFG also in the mix with TX monitoring situation.
— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) December 29, 2015
A natural replacement would be free agent Justin Upton, who has a similar skill set. Unfortunately, the Orioles and Rangers seem to be the likelier options.
Cespedes played his first game with the Mets on August 1. When that game started, they were 53-50. When the season finished, they were 92-70. The 37-22 record they had in that window extrapolates out to somewhere between 101-102 wins over 162 games; you can decide whether you want to round up for down.
Cespedes played in 57 of those 59 games and hit 17 homers with a .604 slugging percentage. To be fair, that pop may not be sustainable over a full year, but they’re going to need a real power bat in that lineup to make another deep postseason run. Right now, the Mets don’t have that.
Winners: Chicago White Sox
Between the Cubs and the White Sox, it’s been a good offseason for Chicago.
As you saw, the White Sox are interested in Yoenis Cespedes, but even if they don’t land him, it’s already been a strong hot stove season for the South Siders. The infield went from a real weakness to a strength, as the White Sox acquired Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie to go along with Jose Abreu.
While another arm in the bullpen probably wouldn’t hurt them, the Sox also have a strong pitching rotation, led by a true ace in Chris Sale.
Additionally, the Kansas City Royals have gotten a little weaker with the losses of Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Not weak enough to be one of the biggest losers of the MLB hot stove season, but weak enough that we can’t just pencil them in as division champs.
Sure, the Royals are the favorites, but the White Sox made the moves needed to give Kansas City a real run in 2016. At the very least, they should be a viable Wild Card contender.
Losers: Washington Nationals
In his career as a manager, Dusty Baker’s teams have made the playoffs seven times. He’s compiled a 19-26 record and advanced out of the first round only twice, 2002 and 2003. Both of those seasons ended with monumental collapses from Baker’s teams. So, he was a curious choice to take over as manager for a team that has yet to win a playoff series, losing twice to 88-win teams.
Baker also made some comments that he probably shouldn’t have made.
The first comments were saying that said that the game is missing speed and that more African-American and Latino players could help that out. That probably wasn’t the best thing to say.
The harder comments to defend were numerous the ones he made about Aroldis Chapman, who’s facing domestic violence charges.
Per Howie Rumberg, Associated Press.
“Oh, he’s a heck of a guy. I mean, a heck of a guy. I’ll go on record and say I wouldn’t mind having Chapman.”
I heard it from my son,” he said. “I mean, who’s to say the allegations are true, number one? And who’s to say what you would have done or what caused the problem?
“I think it’s a great thing. I mean, I got a buddy at home that’s being abused by his wife. So I think this policy needs to go further than the player. I think the policy should go to whoever’s involved,” Baker said. “Sometimes abusers don’t always have pants on.
“I think we need to get them both in a room and try to come up with something. It’s a bad situation. That’s the first thing my momma told me when I was a kid. Don’t hit a woman, even my sister. Man, I was like you better leave me alone before I tell my momma.
With matters like this, coaches and athletes really need to learn how to say “no comment”. Yes, these could be completely trumped up charges. Chapman could have been defending himself. The opposite is also true in which case, any comments defending Chapman will only look worse in time.
Obviously, we’re talking about a domestic violence issue, so how good or bad someone who used to be a boss of the accused player looks is not a pressing issue, but it is something we can all learn from.
There’s no harm in saying nothing. There’s potentially great harm in saying the wrong thing. In this case, silence is your friend.
If that were the only problem with the National hot stove seaason, it’d be bad. Unfortunately, we haven’t even gotten to the players.
The Nationals lost star pitcher Jordan Zimmermann and haven’t replaced him with anyone near as good. They did get a little double magic signing Daniel Murphy away from the Mets but on balance, the Nats still have a long way to go.
They still have an uncertain outfield situation aside from Bryce Harper, and have yet to address the issue that gave us the unquestioned image of the 2015 Washington Nationals season.
Bryce Harper Fights Jonathan Papelbon in the Dugout http://t.co/0KO9KABte8
— Edward Montas (@edward_montas) October 19, 2015
The Nationals get a break since neither the Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, or Philadelphia Phillies are likely contenders, and the New York Mets have also not improved. But given how talented this team has been, they need to win at least one World Series to call this run a success. This hot stove season has not helped that goal.
Actually, it’s been quite a mess.