If you’re a fan of a team headed to the NFL playoffs, you’re no doubt getting excited. Well, we’ve got some good news and some bad news for you.
The bad news is that you’re about to read about a weakness that will keep your team from winning in the playoffs. The good news is that you’re going to read about the problems of every other playoff contender.
So, what are the fatal flaws of the teams still alive for a spot in the NFL playoffs?
We start with the teams contending, but not quite in yet.
Indianapolis Colts: Lack of quality football players
The Indianapolis Colts are technically alive. Granted, they need nine games to go their way in Week 17 to win the AFC South and make the playoffs, but it is possible.
Playoffs or not, Ryan Grigson did an abysmal job putting this team together. Andrew Luck’s status is a question and if he can’t play, they’ll be relying on Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck. Whoever does play quarterback for the Colts will do so behind an awful offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts can’t stop even an average offense. In reality, Colts fans should be hoping that they do get eliminated, as a playoff appearance would only give Jim Irsay a false positive.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pass defense
The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL this season. The other teams in the Top-10 aren’t exactly championship caliber: The New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills.
Besides the Steelers, only the Colts are alive in the playoff chase and excluding Pittsburgh, none will finish with a winning record.
A quarterback like Tom Brady would present an obvious problem for the Steelers, but it goes a little beyond that.
Since they’ll be playing on wild card weekend, a long playoff run from Pittsburgh would probably require that they beat at least two of Rob Gronkowski, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Jeremy Maclin.
Any of them are capable of having a huge day against a shaky Steelers’ secondary.
New York Jets: Opponent’s receivers
While the New York Jets don’t have many overwhelming strengths, they don’t have many apparent weaknesses, either.
Unlike the Steelers, the Jets pass defense isn’t terrible on paper, as it ranks 16th in the NFL. But breaking it down a little deeper, there’s a pretty clear weakness.
The Jets are going to be seeing plenty of good receivers and/or tight ends in the playoffs, including a few of the names on that list.
Houston Texans: Quarterback play
It’s pretty darn difficult to imagine Brandon Weeden or Brian Hoyer leading the Houston Texans on an extended playoff run.
The defense is good, but it will need to be spectacular. Even if it is, defensive minded coaches like Bill Belichick, John Fox, and Marvin Lewis can certainly dial up a game plan that would give either quarterback a lot of trouble.
If the Texans find a true franchise quarterback, they’re a real Super Bowl contender in 2016. This year, it’s hard to see them winning a playoff game and nearly impossible to see them winning two.
Now, on to the teams who are officially in the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings: Non Adrian Peterson production
There’s no doubt that Adrian Peterson is great, but good coaches tend to take what the other team does best away from them. In the case of the Vikings, the Peterson running game is by far what they do best.
There are some bad passing offenses in the NFL, but the St. Louis Rams are the only team with fewer passing yards than the Vikings. Only the Rams and Dallas Cowboys have fewer passing touchdowns.
Also, while the Vikings are tied with the Rams for fewest passing attempts in the league, they’re tied for ninth in sacks allowed.
Getting yards and touchdowns from sources other than Adrian Peterson is an absolute must if the Vikings are going to have playoff success. That will not be easy to come by.
Washington Redskins: Run defense
This could actually be either run defense or run offense, as the Redskins rank as one of the NFL’s 10 worst teams in either category. But Washington’s run defense is the more pressing concern.
The Carolina Panthers rank second in the NFL in rushing, the Seattle Seahawks are third, the Minnesota Vikings are fifth, the Arizona Cardinals are sixth, and the Green Bay Packers are 10th.
Those are the other five NFC playoff teams, and Washington isn’t getting a bye week. If they’re going to reach the Super Bowl, the Redskins will need to beat three of those teams. If they’re smart, those teams will certainly test the Washington run defense.
Kansas City Chiefs: Offensive line
The Kansas City Chiefs have a top-10 rushing attack, but a bottom-10 passing offense.
Now, why is that the case? With Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, they have legitimate weapons. In Alex Smith, they don’t have a legendary quarterback, but he’s not exactly a bad signal-caller. The problem is that the Chiefs have a hard time setting up their passing game.
While only four teams in the league have attempted fewer passes than Kansas City, only the San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, and Cleveland Browns quarterbacks have been sacked more often. Those three teams are all on track to pick in the Top-5 of the draft, so the Chiefs aren’t exactly keeping good company.
Seattle Seahawks: History
The Seahawks definitely have some issues on the offensive line, but they have two other problems working against them.
The first is their road history. Since the Turn of the Century, Seattle is 9-1 in postseason games played at CenturyLink Field and 1-4 in road games. If we count the three Super Bowl appearances, then the Seahawks are 2-6 away from Seattle.
Seattle has one shot at a home playoff game this year: a No. 5 vs. No. 6 conference championship game. That’s never happened in either conference.
The second problem is that only two teams (both AFC) have made three straight Super Bowls. The first was the Miami Dolphins, who did so before the NFL went to a 16-game schedule. The second was the Buffalo Bills, who made four consecutive Super Bowls in an era where the AFC was definitely a JV conference.
The NFC is certainly not that this year. If you play that many games over that period of time, chances are that someone is going to beat you.
This history, combined with their own issues (namely the offensive line), will make a trip to Super Bowl 50 a very bumpy one for the Seattle Seahawks.
Green Bay Packers: Injuries
As long as Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, they should be one of the best passing offenses in the league. In 2015, the they rank 26th in passing yards. That’s not exactly one of the best passing attacks.
As good as Rodgers is, they simply can’t protect him. They were beaten to submission against the Cardinals, who recorded nine sacks against the Packers. It was a season high, but wasn’t exactly surprising.
Even when Rodgers has gotten time to throw, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and James Jones have been anything but consistent, which they’ll need to be if a long postseason run is happening.
With Jordy Nelson and a healthy offensive line, Green Bay is a Super Bowl contender. Without them, they’ll need a lot of help.
Cincinnati Bengals: Negative baggage
We don’t even know if Andy Dalton will be ready for the playoffs. But even if he is, he’s likely to be pretty rusty and Dalton’s playoff history doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of success.
All of that has led to an 0-4 record. Regardless of who the quarterback was, the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game of any kind since January of 1991.
As if all of that wasn’t enough, while the Bengals only have four losses this season, they’re all to playoff teams, or potential playoff teams. The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the most complete rosters in the league, but they have a lot to overcome mentally before they can win in the playoffs.
Denver Broncos: Scoring
The Denver Broncos have probably the best defense in the NFL. The offense is another story. They’ve averaged only 21.9 points per game while allowing 16.5. In their wins, Denver has scored 22.9 and allowed 15.5, while they’ve scored 19 and allowed 26.3 in their losses.
If a team scores about 24 points on them, everything that they’ve done this year suggests that the Broncos will be in a lot of trouble.
They do have a great defense and some great wins on the schedule. But that offense is going to get a lot better if they’re going to embark on a long playoff run.
New England Patriots: Rushing offense
It would seem as though the New England Patriots can win no matter who puts on the jersey, but their running game is problematic. Only the San Diego Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Indianapolis Colts have fewer rushing yards.
In the playoffs, you’re generally playing in cold weather against teams that want to take your best weapon away. In the case of the Patriots, that’s clearly Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. With injury uncertainty surrounding Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, the Patriots are going to need to run the ball.
The AFC should definitely favor New England, but their fans should be very concerned with guys like Brandon Bolden and Steven Jackson running behind a makeshift offensive line.
Carolina Panthers: Receivers
Imagine the following scenario. The Carolina Panthers are hosting the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. Arizona is holding a small lead and the Panthers face a big third-and-eight. Where exactly do the Panthers go to get that conversion?
If the Cardinals, or any opponent for that matter, are taking Greg Olsen away, then the Panthers are probably going to Ted Ginn Jr., Jerricho Cotchery, or hoping that Cam Newton can pick up the eight yards with his legs.
The Panthers rank just ahead of the Packers in passing yards per game. Granted, they’ve been way up in a lot of games, so they’ve been able to run more, but that’s still a shaky stat this late in the year.
Carolina is a great team, but if an opponent keys on Olsen and slowing the running game down, the receivers are going to need to step up in a big way.
Arizona Cardinals: Interceptions
The Arizona Cardinals are my pick to win the Super Bowl. They’re the most complete team in the NFL and are at or near the top of the league in nearly all major categories. There is, however, one slightly troubling statistic.
Carson Palmer has thrown 10 interceptions this season. It’s a little high compared to some of the other quarterbacks in the playoffs but in and of itself, not a big issue.
The issue is the interceptions, combined with the fact that the Cardinals like to throw the ball deep. That’s where interceptions tend to happen and in the playoffs, one interception can sway a game. If the Cardinals don’t win the Super Bowl, a bad turnover in a big spot will likely be a big cause.