NFL teams scratch and claw to get to the top of the mountain, but inevitably some end up tumbling back down instead.
It happens every year.
Whether it’s because the injury bug bit bad, because coaches and general managers don’t get along or because they just aren’t very good, some teams always fail to live up to high offseason expectations.
Obviously we cannot predict which teams will get bit by the bug, but we can attempt to pinpoint the teams that will not make it up the mountain in 2015 for other reasons. The following squads–one from each division—will fail in their efforts to improve their 2014 performances, taking a step back in 2015.
AFC East: New England Patriots
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Deflategate aside, the Patriots have lost a lot of talent.
Forget about Deflategate for a minute.
Even if Tom Brady beats Roger Goodell in the appeals process, the Patriots will certainly not improve from last year’s Super Bowl form.
No Vince Wilfork. No Darrelle Revis. No Brandon Browner. No Shane Vereen. No Stevan Ridley. No top receiver. Tom Brady inching toward that inevitable point of irrelevance at the age of 37.
It doesn’t look good.
Coupled with these losses is an AFC East that is markedly better. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets improved dramatically this offseason, and the Dolphins have been threatening to take the next step for a couple of years.
As a final straw to break the camel’s back, the Patriots did win the Super Bowl last year, as mentioned previously. Only eight teams in NFL history have repeated as champs. New England is one of those teams, but that was back in 2003-04 when Brady was still young and the team’s defense was loaded.
Even without the distraction and potential suspension of Brady, the Patriots face an overwhelming gauntlet of obstacles blocking them from sliding backwards this season. Throw in the distractions and potential suspension and it’s clear New England will face some roadblocks in 2015.
AFC South: Houston Texans
When looking at the AFC South, you see two teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee) that cannot fall any further than they did last season, the ever-rising Indianapolis Colts and then Houston.
Of the four, there is only one logical choice here.
The Colts reloaded significantly during free agency, improving both offensively and defensively with the additions of Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and Trent Cole. Quarterback Andrew Luck is already one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, and he’s not long for the top-five list.
On the other side of the coin in this division is Houston, which doesn’t have a franchise quarterback. Not only do the Texans not have a leading man, but career backups Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will be battling one another this summer to determine which quarterback should start—never a good sign heading into the season.
Head coach Bill O’Brien doesn’t want to promote the “quarterback controversy” narrative, as noted by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:
“I don’t look at it like a controversy,” O’Brien said. “I have to make sure that when I stand in front of the team I’m on the same page with them and that these two guys are going to compete just like every position on our team.”
Despite his best intentions, there will inevitably be controversy when the quarterback that does win the battle ends up failing to deliver during the season.
There’s only one way this is going to end for the Texans, and it’s not going to be pretty.
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: It’s a make or break season for Andy Dalton in Cincinnati.
The biggest problem Cincinnati has, and this isn’t confined to the upcoming season, is that Andy Dalton is the team’s quarterback. The offensive roster is stacked with talent, but that talent inevitably goes to waste when the games matter most, thanks to Dalton’s propensity to choke under pressure.
Furthermore, the Bengals, once amongst the league’s top defensive teams, fell off a cliff in that regard last year when former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer took the head coaching job in Minnesota. Cincinnati’s defense ranked No. 3 overall in 2013 and then No. 22 in 2014 (coaching matters).
Pass-rushing is a big issue for the Bengals. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), no team was worse at pressuring opposing quarterbacks last year, and the secondary isn’t good enough to overcome the deficiency.
This is especially true in the AFC North, where Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco dwell. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t going to take a step back with these men leading the charge.
Meanwhile, Bengals fans have been stuck with just-better-than mediocrity during the regular season and utter incompetence in the playoffs.
Mediocre quarterback plus bad defense equals failure.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will be a tough team every week, but of the four AFC West teams, this squad has the best chance of taking a step back this season.
The Oakland Raiders are going to continue rising. Derek Carr is a promising young passer who now has some help. With the additions of Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and tight end Clive Walford, he’s going to take a giant leap forward this year.
Contrarily, Quarterback Alex Smith has too many limitations, and therefore, Kansas City’s passing game becomes too predictable.
On top of that, Jamaal Charles may be reaching the unavoidable decline that plagues nearly every running back in the league. Injuries piled up last year, causing him to log 15 or fewer carries 10 times in 2014—not at all what you hope for with your featured back. After 1,249 career carries, it appears his body might be giving out on him, as it happens with so many great running backs.
Coupled with a defense that has talent but that isn’t good enough to overcome the offense’s limitations, you see a team that is going to be stuck in mediocrity this year. Denver and San Diego, both featuring top quarterbacks, will compete for the division title, while the Chiefs will fight Oakland for the basement.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Is it possible that Chip Kelly out-foxed himself?
The NFC East is always highly competitive, and it’s always a gamble to project what will happen. The Dallas Cowboys look like potential Super Bowl contenders this upcoming year, and the New York Giants are almost certain to bounce back after a poor showing in 2014.
Washington is…well, it’s going to stay in the cellar.
That leaves Philadelphia.
Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has been like a mad scientist this offseason as he tinkers and toys with his roster, hoping to find just the right mixture to implement his grand plan.
He let Jeremy Maclin, the team’s leading receiver last year, jump ship to Kansas City. He jettisoned LeSean McCoy to Buffalo, getting linebacker Kiko Alonso in return. Kelly also let veteran pass-rusher Trent Cole go for salary-cap reasons, and it’s hard to imagine the team will replace his steady production on the edge.
He played quarterback carousel, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford, re-signing Mark Sanchez and then bringing in Tim Tebow, just to make it more interesting. Speaking of Tebow, Kelly might have designs on turning him into a two-point machine instead of relying on a kicker to convert extra points.
There are a lot of moving parts within Kelly’s machinations.
This grand experiment will either propel Philly into greatness or it will fail miserably.
We’re betting on the latter.
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Cam Newton just doesn’t have the necessary talent around him.
The NFC South was horrible last year, making this a difficult decision. But it’s hard to imagine the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons falling further than they did a year ago, and Tampa Bay can only go up after winning just two games a year ago.
That leaves Carolina.
While the Panthers are extremely talented defensively, their offense is liable to stumble again in 2015.
Cam Newton is a phenomenal athlete who also happens to have a cannon for an arm. Unfortunately, he has never been put into a position to succeed long term with the Panthers.
This year is no different.
While the team has invested in retooling its receiving corps, drafting Kelvin Benjamin last year and Devin Funchess this year, it has completely failed Newton when it comes to protection up front. According to Pro Football Focus, no team in the league gave its quarterback worse protection last year than the Panthers.
And things are even worse this year.
Run Cam: Jonathan Martin and Michael Oher Could Compete for Panthers Left … http://t.co/GjcnX8oI7R #NFL pic.twitter.com/UKyD1dao3i
— Sportsnaut (@Sportsnaut) May 16, 2015
Jonathan Martin and Michael Oher will reportedly “compete” to see who will “earn” the right to protect Newton’s blind side. With the efforts being made by both Atlanta and New Orleans to ramp up the pass rush, there’s a chance Newton might not even make it through the season.
Even if he does, the former Heisman winner is going to get absolutely pummeled again in 2015. And the Panthers will end up in third place behind the Falcons and Saints.
NFC North: Detroit Lions
The Green Bay Packers aren’t going anywhere as the leaders of this division. Since Mike McCarthy took over, this team has made the playoffs seven out of nine years (six years in a row). Aaron Rodgers has a lot to do with this, but so has general manager Ted Thompson.
The Packers are not taking a step back.
Neither will the Minnesota Vikings—a team that is trending up with the help of second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Chicago Bears might match their abysmal totals of a year ago, but nobody should expect another step back.
This leaves Detroit.
Matthew Stafford’s career completion percentage is less than 60 percent, and he barely cracked that plateau last year. In an age when 70 percent is the new 60, he’s lagging far behind the curve. Despite having the greatest receiver in this generation at his disposal, Stafford still can’t seem to take the next step (annual note).
His lack of development as a franchise passer has a lot to do with why the Lions continue to disappoint their fans—a trend that will continue again in 2015.
The Lions haven’t won a playoff game since way back in 1991—might as well be a century, the way attention spans run these days.
The last time Detroit made it to the playoffs (2011), the Lions fell off a cliff the next season, winning just four games. Nobody should expect this team to fall so far in 2015 after losing last year’s wild card game to the Dallas Cowboys, but another downturn should be in the cards.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Unlike previous seasons, there are some real holes to look at here.
The general consensus amongst many NFL pundits this offseason is that the San Francisco 49ers (8-8 last year and missed the playoffs) will be the team in the NFC West to take a step back. Looking at the talent on San Francisco’s roster—both on offense and defense—we cannot make the same argument.
Instead, look further north.
Seattle has been to the final base camp of the NFL’s Mt. Everest two years running, reaching the summit two seasons ago. Both times, the Seahawks were carried by their defense, while the offense remained mostly the Marshawn Lynch show, with a smattering of brilliant plays by quarterback Russell Wilson.
Lynch is one year older, quickly approaching the dreaded 30-year-old mark. He has carried the ball 1,181 times the past four years since joining Seattle’s roster. He has made his mark on the league by breaking tackles that would drop most running backs, and he has had to do so because Seattle’s offensive line has always been an area of concern.
This year is no different. The team’s best offensive lineman last year, center Max Unger, was shipped off to New Orleans in the Jimmy Graham trade. In response to what the Seahawks will do to make up for the loss, head coach Pete Carroll had this to say, courtesy of The Seattle Times:
“We’ve got depth, and we’ve got guys that we know can play,’’ Carroll said after the trade of Unger. “We played a lot of games with these guys last year, so we’ll look forward to everybody contributing.”
In case you aren’t fluent in coach-speak, Carroll is saying, “we’re screwed.”
Furthermore, Seattle continues to ignore the need to bring in legitimate outside receiving targets. Sure, Wilson has an incredible knack for making lemonade out of lemons, but at some point the Seahawks must realize that lemons won’t get the job done long term.
Graham should make things a bit spicier offensively, but nobody should expect him to match numbers he put up in New Orleans—the Seahawks aren’t nearly as pass-happy as the Saints.
Seattle’s defense will continue holding the franchise up, but like the 49ers did after making it to the NFC Championship three years running, the Seahawks will take a step back in 2015. Meanwhile the Arizona Cardinals will supplant Seattle atop the division with San Francisco nipping at both team’s heels.
Photo: USA Today Sports