One of the gifts analytics pioneer John Hollinger left ESPN before departing for a front office job with the Memphis Grizzlies was his “Playoff Odds” feature. As the name suggests, the feature measures the percentage of times out of 5,000 computer simulations each team will make the playoffs. The algorithm for the simulations is hideously complicated, and takes into account strength of schedule, performance over the last ten games and possibly even the quality of steakhouses that can be found within a five mile radius of each team’s home arena.
It is after nights like Wednesday that I imagine a sullen playoff odds generator going through its nightly computations hunched over a half-empty bottle of Bushmills with an infinite number of cigarette butts littered all over the desk.
The Boston Celtics currently hold the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs by virtue of a tiebreak over the Indiana Pacers. Brooklyn and Charlotte meanwhile, are half a game back. Let me repeat: half a game separates four teams battling for one playoff spot. And that doesn’t even include Miami, who are only two games ahead of the pack.
Here’s how Hollinger’s Playoff Odds handicaps the race:
Miami – 76.9%
Indiana – 53.4%
Boston – 29.3%
Brooklyn – 23.2%
Charlotte – 19.0%
As I mentioned, there’s a lot of intractable numbers that go into those calculations, as well as one man’s subjective steak preferences, so here are some facts that are easier to cope with.
Courtesy of USA Today: Celtics remain firmly in the mix in the East.
Remaining schedule home/road splits:
Miami – 6 home; 5 road
Indiana – 5 home; 6 road
Boston – 5 home; 6 road
Brooklyn – 9 home; 3 road
Charlotte – 6 home; 6 road
You’ll notice Brooklyn is the outlier here, with a home-heavy closing stretch. Why is that not reflected in Hollinger’s playoff odds? Simple. They’re 12-20 at home on the season, the sixth-worst mark in the league.
Remaining strength of schedule, measured by opponents’ winning percentage (via PlayoffStatus.com):
Miami – 49%
Indiana – 48%
Boston – 50%
Brooklyn – 52%
Charlotte – 53%
Strength of schedule aligns quite well with Hollinger’s odds. Miami and Indiana have the easiest paths home, and they have the best odds to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brooklyn and Charlotte face stiffer competition and therefore have the worst odds of stealing a spot in the playoffs.
Those are the primary predictive measures. But what about the factors a computer algorithm wouldn’t think of, like willingness of an opponent to win on any given night?
Games remaining against each other:
Miami – 2 (at Indiana, vs. Charlotte)
Indiana – 4 (at Brooklyn, at Boston, vs. Charlotte, vs. Miami)
Boston – 2 (at Charlotte, vs. Indiana)
Brooklyn – 1 (vs. Indiana)
Charlotte – 3 (vs. Boston, at Indiana, at Miami)
Of the five teams, Indiana has most control of its own destiny. In fact, those four games are all in a row over six nights. A sweep and they’d be all but in the playoffs, even winning three of four puts them in great shape.
Courtesy of USA Today: Hornets slate of back-to-backs could doom the team.
Back-to-backs:
Miami – 1 (at Detroit/at Indiana)
Indiana – 1 (vs. Washington/at Memphis to close the season)
Boston – 3 (vs. LA Clippers/at Charlotte, vs. Milwaukee/at Toronto, vs. Toronto/at Milwaukee)
Brooklyn – 2 (vs. Toronto/at Atlanta, at Milwaukee/vs. Chicago)
Charlotte – 4 (at Washington/vs. Atlanta, at Indiana/vs. Philadelphia, at Miami/vs. Toronto, at Detroit/vs. Houston)
More evidence that tilts the race in the favor of Miami and Indiana.
Games remaining against Western Conference playoff teams:
Miami – 1 (vs. San Antonio)
Indiana – 3 (vs. Dallas, vs. Oklahoma City, at Memphis)
Boston – 1 (vs. LA Clippers)
Brooklyn – 1 (vs. Portland)
Charlotte – 1 (vs. Houston)
Games remaining against tanking teams*:
Miami – 1 (at Philadelphia on the last day of the season)
Indiana – 1 (at New York)
Boston – 1 (at New York)
Brooklyn – 2 (vs. Los Angeles, at New York)
Charlotte – 1 (vs. Philadelphia)
*Tanking teams are defined here as Minnesota, Philadelphia, New York and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Games remaining against teams potentially resting for the playoffs:
Miami – None, although their final two games are against Orlando and Philadelphia.
Indiana – Washington on April 14th.
Boston – Cleveland on April 10th and 12th, Toronto on April 14th and Milwaukee on April 15th.
Brooklyn – Chicago on April 13th.
Charlotte – Houston on April 13th and Toronto on April 15th.
Add it all up and it’s easy to see why Hollinger’s odds favor Miami and Indiana. Still, these teams have all been so erratic it’s impossible to know what’s going to happen on any given night, let alone over the course of 11 or 12 games.
Just sit back, relax, and revel in the knowledge whoever does emerge from dregs of the Eastern Conference is very likely to get trounced by Atlanta or Cleveland in the first round.
Photo: USA Today