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Super Bowl XLIX: 5 Key Matchups

Great matchups abound in this, the pinnacle of the NFL season. Super Bowl XLIX pits the New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks in what promises to be a closely contested affair.

At least, that’s the hope. We all thought last year’s Super Bowl would be a great game, but it was apparent from Peyton Manning’s first snap, he and the Denver Broncos were outmatched by Russell Wilson and company.

This time around, the AFC appears to be represented by a team better suited to challenge the Seahawks, a franchise teeming with confidence and ready to add the handle dynasty to its description—a term not used to describe an NFL team since Brady’s Patriots won three titles in the early 2000’s.

Here are five key matchups sure to draw your attention on Super Bowl Sunday.

1. Tom Brady vs. Richard Sherman

This is the premier matchup to watch throughout the game. With Seattle playing the way it has of late, allowing 3.6 yards per carry and only one rushing touchdown over the past eight games, it may be difficult for New England to get anything going with its stable of running backs.

Therefore, Brady vs. Sherman will be thrust into the forefront of the biggest game of the 2014 season.

The last time these two teams met, Sherman coined the now-popular phrase, “You mad, bro?” He’s not one to shy away from attention and is always looking to get under someone’s skin to gain a competitive advantage. That sentence he uttered over two years ago may still be in the back of Brady’s mind this Sunday.

Brady told Boston sports radio WEEI Monday (h/t Terry Blount of ESPN.com) he didn’t recall Sherman’s words:

Truthfully, at that time, I thought he was just coming up to say ‘good game.’ That’s all I thought it was. It was loud after that game, so I didn’t really hear anything. Then I went into the locker room after the game and … he said he was talking trash to me. That was all a bit of a surprise to me.

Whether he’s being truthful about hearing Sherman or not we’ll never know. But the stats say Brady targeted Sherman seven times, completing just two passes for 32 yards and a pick in that 2012 matchup, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Advantage Sherman.

2. Marshawn Lynch vs. Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins

Marshawn Lynch SN

Marshawn Lynch has over 150 more total touches over the past four seasons than any other back, playoffs included. His 1,454 totes in 70 games averages out to 20.8 per game, and the Seahawks don’t typically use him much more than that.

Over that four-year span, Lynch has had just two 30-touch games (that’s carries plus receptions). Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray had five such games this season alone.

But it’s not how often he touches the ball—it’s how productive he is when he does.

Patriots inside linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins have their work cut out for them against Lynch. He does a lot of his work after contact and is unquestionably the most difficult back in the league to bring down. In two games this postseason, Lynch has forced 21 missed tackles, according to PFF. He’s also averaging 4.2 yards after contact per carry.

Those numbers are crazy good, but they’re just a two-game window into what he’s done this season. Including the postseason, Lynch has averaged 4.9 yards per carry up the middle and has forced a missed tackle once every three carries. That is why Hightower and Collins are on notice. He gets to the second level up the gut so often, they’ll be in on a lot of plays—especially in the red zone.

3. Rob Gronkowski vs. Seattle Secondary

Including the postseason, All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski leads the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in the red zone, and he has a touchdown in five straight games in which he’s played dating back to early December.

The Gronk is a matchup nightmare for most defenses, but Seattle is big and physical enough on the back end to withstand his freakish abilities.

This is where the Legion of Boom comes in. Everyone from Sherman and cornerback Byron Maxwell to safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas will have a crack at covering him. Even linebacker K.J. Wright will have a chance to cover him—though, that would not be a wise choice by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

If Gronkowski has a big day, it could lead to the Patriots hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. That’s how important he is. New England is 36-6 (.857) when he catches a touchdown pass, including 3-0 in the postseason.

4. Russell Wilson vs. New England Pass Rush

Vince Wilfork SN

Not just edge-rushers Chandler Jones and Akeem Ayers, but the big guys up front have to stay home in order to contain Russell Wilson. Defending Wilson is not about pressure up the middle, it’s about pressure on the edge and defensive tackles holding off interior linemen so as not to give the quarterback a lane to take off.

Easier said than done. Wilson has done things this season not many in NFL history have. In fact, he became the first player ever to throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 in an October loss to the St. Louis Rams.

You remember that game, right? The Rams pulled off a trick-play punt return for a touchdown, which may have been the difference in a 28-26 Seattle loss.

For the Patriots to contain Wilson, Vince Wilfork, Alan Branch and company have to maintain the middle and not let him get by when he takes off. It’ll be a long night for the defense if both Lynch and Wilson beat New England with their legs.

5. Jon Ryan vs. Ryan Allen

Punters are people too, and the field-position game begins with Seattle’s Jon Ryan and New England’s Ryan Allen. In the regular season, these two teams were No. 1 and 2 in average defensive starting field position—Seattle earned the top spot at the 25.25-yard line, while New England was close behind at the 25.31, according to Football Outsiders.

Sustaining drives may be difficult in this game considering both teams have played exceptionally well of late on defense. While both Brady and Wilson can light up a scoreboard, defense—and, to a lesser degree, special teams—wins championships. The team that can stop the opposing offense on third down and can pin them back when its own offense is stopped should be in great shape when the confetti starts falling.

Photo: USA Today

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