As if by fate, the New England Patriots made it through the AFC in 2014 and now have a chance, as the last “dynasty” in the NFL, to stop what could be the coronation of the newest dynasty when they square off against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX.
New England’s road to Arizona was an easier one than Seattle’s, beating the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts by a combined 42 points—though, the Patriots did have a far tougher time with Joe Flacco and the Ravens.
The Seahawks will be Tom Brady’s biggest test of the season. And it comes at the best time, when everyone will be watching to see if he can finally win another ring.
Is he one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history? Without question. But he and the Patriots have had trouble winning on the largest stage of late. Since going 9-0 while winning three Super Bowls in his first four seasons as a starter, he is 11-8 in the postseason and has an 0-2 record in the big game.
This is Brady’s NFL-record sixth Super Bowl, and here are the keys that will lead him and his Patriots to victory over the Seahawks.
1. Find a Rushing Attack
One of the keys for New England in the AFC Championship game against the Colts was its need for a successful run game. Well, 148 yards and three touchdowns on the ground later, LeGarrette Blount made that a reality and the Pats ran away with the game, 45-7.
Blount figures to have a big role once again as the lead back. He fueled the attack two weeks ago, and he could be the key in his biggest game as a pro.
The Patriots are 30-0 since 2009 when rushing at least 30 times and averaging 4.0-plus yards per carry—including the Colts game.
Seattle had the No. 2 run defense in the league this season, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. However, that tough defense has been slightly porous in the playoffs, surrendering 4.5 yards per carry to the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers.
That defense is great, no doubt, but it is not perfect. It’s beatable. Getting the ground attack going with Blount is a great way to find the few holes that reside within it.
2. Get Off the Field on Third Down
This postseason, Seattle has converted 53.6 percent (excluding kneel-down plays) and has scored four of its seven offensive touchdowns on third down. Quarterback Russell Wilson is 12-of-19 passing (63.2 percent) for 288 yards, three scores and two picks for a 106.8 passer rating, and Marshawn Lynch has carried six times for 33 yards (5.5 yards per carry) on the ever-important down.
This will be a huge challenge for a New England defense that finished in the middle of the pack during the regular season, allowing offenses a 40.2 percent third-down conversion rate.
The Patriots should probably worry more about Wilson than they should Lynch on third downs. The quarterback struggled during the regular season (77.1 rating) and against the Packers in the NFC title game (two of his four total interceptions), but he can get hot at any time.
Then there’s this:
When Seattle has had a 3rd-and-3 or shorter this season (including the postseason), offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has called a run play 66.1 percent of the time. When it’s 3rd-and-4 or longer, the play-calling is vastly different, with 83.1 percent of the plays coming through the air.
You essentially know what’s coming based on the distance needed. But the Patriots will have more opportunities to stop Wilson considering three quarters of the Seahawks third downs this season have been four-plus yards.
3. Force-Feed Gronk in the Red Zone
Let Blount get you close, but get the ball to tight end Rob Gronkowski when the field is short. It sounds good in theory, but of course it will be difficult. Seattle will not just lay down and let New England gain chunks of yards—everything will be hard-earned.
Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL. We could argue that, but for brevity’s sake, let’s all just agree and move on.
Of his 13 red-zone receptions this season, 11 of them have resulted in touchdowns. In five NFL seasons, 46 of his 54 career touchdowns have come in the red zone (playoffs included). No one has more red-zone touchdowns over that time…and he missed 15 games over the past three seasons.
Gronkowski is an easy ticket to six points when the Patriots are knocking on the door. He’s so big and physical that defenses don’t know how to cover him. The Seahawks have the size to match up against him, but do they have the power?
4. Keep Brady Upright
While the Patriots are on offense, nothing they do will be successful if the Seahawks are able to shrink the pocket. Increased pressure on Brady diminishes the chances New England’s offense can move the ball because, while the veteran’s release is lightning-quick, his passes can come out a bit flat when under pressure.
Including the postseason, Brady has some bloated stats with a clean pocket, completing 71.0 percent of his passes with 35 touchdowns to just four interceptions and a 113.6 passer rating. But his numbers depress to 45.0 percent completions with four touchdowns and seven interceptions for a 51.4 rating when the pocket collapses and he’s forced to make a decision, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Should the Seahawks expand their pass rush and deflate Brady’s time in the pocket, there’s a good chance they will take the air out of the New England offense.
Photo: USA Today