In an impending free-agency class chock-full of stud running backs, Dallas Cowboys star DeMarco Murray is set to sign perhaps the most lucrative deal of them all. Whether he remains with the Cowboys or signs elsewhere, he will undoubtedly be a very rich man when teams suit up for the 2015 season.
Murray is rounding out one of the more impressive seasons we have seen from an NFL back in recent years—not quite Adrian Peterson circa 2012, but close.
Here’s a quick rundown of Murray’s accomplishments this season and what he could accomplish with a strong finish:
- 1,606 yards rushing (fourth all-time in Dallas history)
- 5.02 yards per carry (third in NFL this season)
- 320 carries (leads NFL by 78)
- Needs 168 yards to break Emmitt Smith’s single-season franchise record of 1,773 yards rushing (set in 1995)
- Needs 394 yards to become eighth player with 2,000 yards rushing in a single campaign
- Needs 500 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s NFL single-season record of 2,105 yards rushing (set in 1984)
That last one will be tough considering the Cowboys have three games remaining. Murray will need to average about 167 yards per game over the final three games if he wants the record.
Whether he gets there or not is irrelevant. His free-agency stock is through the roof right now because not only has he been the best running back in the league this season—by a wide margin, to boot—he has outpaced the competition while never once showing up on an injury report.
That’s huge. Durability at the running back position is a problem for so many franchises these days, and it’s a big reason why Murray is about to get paid.
A couple of factors will come into play when deciding where to sign—it may not be all about money. Who’s at quarterback and the quality of the offensive line likely will be at the top of Murray’s list of factors, perhaps ahead of contract worth. Those two factors were considered in choosing Murray’s best suitors.
Let’s go over some potential 2015 landing spots for the 26-year-old.
Baltimore Ravens
Courtesy of NFL.com: Justin Forsett is a free agent in Baltimore.
If you place Murray in an offense with Joe Flacco and one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league, the Ravens suddenly become legitimate Super Bowl contenders. And assuming Baltimore re-signs wide receiver Torrey Smith, who—like Murray—is a free-agent-to-be, the potential is there for another Super Bowl run.
The Ravens have not missed Ray Rice as much as most assumed they would. Justin Forsett (look, another 2015 free agent!) leads the NFL this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. And according to Pro Football Focus, he leads all backs who have played at least half of their team’s snaps in Breakaway Percentage, at 39.6 percent—that is, the percentage of yards that come on runs of 15 or more yards.
Forsett has carried 179 times for 1,009 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Considering he’s 29 years old, however, the Ravens may not want to sign him to a lengthy, lucrative contract. NFL running backs typically hit a wall at age 30, so there is no reason for Baltimore to throw money at him.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have spent the past four seasons riding the powerful legs of Marshawn Lynch. But he’s also set to be a free agent, and no one has more carries since 2011 than he does.
Lots of miles on Lynch’s tires, lots of cap space for the ‘Hawks and a workhorse like Murray looking for a big payday and a Super Bowl ring? Murray replacing Lynch is a match made in football heaven.
And it’s not as though Lynch is excited about the possibility of returning to the city in which he earned his Super Bowl ring. Not based on what he told Michael Silver of NFL.com, anyway:
Do I think I’ll be gone after this season? I don’t know, man. The Seahawks, their front office gets in the media; they talk a lot. I don’t talk too much. I just play the game.
If they have something going on, I don’t know about it.
Seattle’s offensive line has struggled this season, but injuries have left it tattered and bloody. The Seahawks are getting healthy, and they’re asserting their dominance of late. A late-season surge could entice Murray to take his talents to the Great Northwest next March.
Arizona Cardinals
One thing the Cardinals have lacked this season is a consistent running game. Running back Andre Ellington has had to do it by himself, which hasn’t turned out the way most expected; he has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this season, but he’s been banged up all year and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry—this after leading the league with a 5.5 yards-per-carry average as a rookie last season.
Ellington clearly is not the every-down back head coach Bruce Arians thought he could be. Having a small build as an NFL running back puts one at a disadvantage, and Ellington is 5’10” and barely 200 pounds.
He is one of four running backs this season to have at least 200 carries and 40 receptions. Of the four, he is by far the smallest.
Arians’ offense would benefit from a bigger, durable back, and Murray would fit in on a playoff-contending team like the Cardinals. Cap space could be an issue for Arizona early in the offseason, but with some clever reworking, a contract as demanding as Murray’s should be within reach.
Indianapolis Colts
Courtesy of USA Today: Imagine Luck and Murray in the same backfield.
Andrew Luck and the Colts are a running back away from having the most fearsome offense in the game. If you think Luck’s stats are crazy-good right now, just imagine what would happen if opposing defenses also had to worry about Murray in the backfield.
That’s just not fair.
Indianapolis needs a running back in the worst way. It inexplicably traded for maligned former top-5 pick, the underwhelming Trent Richardson, during the 2013 season. Since joining the Colts, he has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and has only six rushing touchdowns in 25 games played.
The Colts have the cap space and the need to go after Murray. If he leaves Dallas, this move makes the most sense for the former Oklahoma standout. They have the biggest need and would benefit most from his skillset.
Dallas Cowboys
Why ruin a good thing? The Cowboys have one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL, and they have a system in place dedicated to feeding Murray the football as often as possible.
One problem Dallas could run into is in signing the other free agents on the team. Not only is Murray a big name set to hit the market, so is receiver Dez Bryant, right tackle Doug Free, linebackers Bruce Carter, Justin Durant and Rolando McClain as well as defensive end Anthony Spencer.
Can the Cowboys afford to keep Murray? Would he accept a “hometown discount” to remain with the team that drafted him? Considering the short shelf-life of NFL running backs, that may be asking a lot.
Wherever he goes, Murray is one of the most exciting players to watch for the way he runs the ball. He is a fast, physical runner who possesses the short-area quickness seen most in smaller backs. Few match his talent level—fewer exceed it.
Where do you think Murray should sign?
Photo: USA Today