There aren’t many games on the Week 7 NFL slate where we can look at a matchup and conclude that the underdog will pull off an upset.
Sure we can look at the way the Seattle Seahawks have been playing recently and expect a closer game with the St. Louis Rams. But you would have to be out of your mind to pick an upset there. The San Francisco 49ers, as near-touchdown underdogs on the road against the Denver Broncos, seem like a logical pick as well. However, heading into Mile High against Peyton Manning with over half your starting defense on the shelf, including three All-Pro linebackers, isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
With that said, there are a few games where the road underdog should be taken seriously as potential upset winners heading into Week 7.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Courtesy of USA Today
Indianapolis has won four in a row against what can be considered less-than-stellar competition. It’s averaging about five touchdowns per outing in those four games and is 15-4 at home during the regular season with Andrew Luck under center. If that’s not reason enough to believe that the Colts will beat Cincinnati, consider this: the Bengals are winless in their last two games and are just 10-8 on the road with Andy Dalton under center.
It must, however, be noted that Cincinnati is among the most-talented teams in the NFL and tends to play up to the level of its competition. It was 4-0 against playoff teams a season ago. The issue with Cincinnati is consistency. Marvin Lewis’ squad also tends to play down to the level of its competition. That shouldn’t be an issue against a Colts team that has been in pure domination mode recently. With Giovani Bernard proving that he can shoulder the load, the Bengals should be able to have success against a Colts team that is yielding 168 total yards per game to running backs on the season. That will open up the passing game for Dalton and Co. and could very well be enough for Cincinnati to rebound from this minor lull in its performance.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Chicago Bears
Courtesy of CBS Sports: Tannehill and the Dolphins need a win to remain viable in the AFC East.
Despite being competitive on a consistent basis this season, Miami still finds itself unable to turn close games into wins. And following a last-second loss to the Green Bay Packers last week, Joe Philbin’s squad is in near must-win mode in the AFC East. The good news here is that Miami is going up against an equally inconsistent Bears team that has lost two of its last three games and has yet to win at home this season.
The Dolphins key to success in this one will be on offense. Consider this: Miami’s defense ranks sixth overall in yards against but is 22nd in points allowed. This tells a story of an offense that is unable to sustain long drives and create field position advantages for what is a good defense. If Ryan Tannehill can get some help from Lamar Miller and the ground game, that shouldn’t be much of an issue against a Bears defense that simply doesn’t possess the necessary talent to stop NFL offenses on a consistent basis.
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at San Diego Chargers
Courtesy of USA Today: Travis Kelce is a huge wild card in this one.
San Diego yielded four touchdown passes to Derek Carr last week. It did so despite the fact that Oakland doesn’t have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. That has to be a tad worrisome for the Chargers heading into this all-important Week 7 matchup against a Chiefs team that is coming off a bye.
With Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis fully healthy and ready to complement one another on the ground, Alex Smith should be able to find the balance to move the ball through the air. That’s only magnified by the emergence of Travis Kelce at tight end. Look for Kansas City to go into Southern California and pull off a win it desperately needs.
Photo: USA Today