When MLB decided to add a second wildcard team to the playoffs in each league a couple years back, the idea was met with some skepticism. After all, a one-game playoff to dictate who moves on to the league division series made little sense, especially after a 162-game regular season schedule.
MLB’s thought process behind expanding the playoffs was obvious. The idea was to keep fans interested in more games towards the latter part of the year. And that’s exactly where we are right now.
According to this graphic by Baseball Prospectus, 19 teams have at least a five percent chance of earning a trip to the postseason right now (h/t Business Insider).
That’s up from 15 teams at this point last year.
Interestingly enough, it seems the number of teams contending for a playoff spot late into the season have increased over the past four years. Using this same model, only 12 teams had a five percent (or better) chance of making the playoffs on this date in 2012.
If you look at ESPN’s generic model, the same pretty much rings true. A total of 17 teams currently have a five percent (or better) chance of earning a trip to the second season. One of the only difference there are the Yankees with just a 3.5 percent chance according to the ESPN metric.
Some things might have changed a little since Baseball Prospectus released its model a couple days ago, but it’s still rather interesting. It should also be taken with a grain of salt.
By our estimations about 21 teams are currently within 6.5 games of a playoff spot entering this weekend. Any one of those teams at the bottom of the current playoff race could go on a hot streak and slide into the playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a perfect example.
The Rays are the fourth team in history to reach .500 after being as many as 18 games under .500 earlier in the season.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 16, 2014
Despite being 18 games under .500 at one point this season and trading away staff ace David Price, Tampa Bay is right in the mix for a playoff spot in the American League. Baseball Prospectus gives the Rays a 6.7 percent chance of earning a playoff trip, while ESPN currently has them at 8.5 percent. With that said, Joe Maddon’s team is only 5.5 games out of the final wildcard spot.
Another team that seems to be playing out the stretch, the San Diego Padres, are also in the mix in the National League. While they have a ton of teams to jump for the second wildcard spot, the Padres are currently only 6.5 games out of the playoffs. They will also be taking on the San Francisco Giants, who are right above them in the standings, seven times in the final 10 games of the regular season.
Neither Tampa Bay or San Diego possess realistic playoff chances at this point. But their inclusion in this study just goes to show you how much parity is in MLB today.
It’s up to you to decide whether that’s a good thing or not.
Photo: MLB.com