Now that Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton have agreed to team-friendly long-term contracts this offseason, attention around the NFL will turn to 2012 draft picks who will likely have to be extended within the next calendar year.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, teams are unable to extend players who are currently under their rookie deals until following their third NFL season. This means that Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Nick Foles cannot be extended until following this upcoming season.
The interesting aspect of potential extensions from here on out is how Kaepernick and Dalton structured their long-term deals. Kaepernick’s extension is pretty much a year-by-year deal that enables the San Francisco 49ers to get out from under it after each season without a salary cap hit. Dalton’s deal is realistically more on the two-year, $25 million scale than the “six-year deal” he signed earlier this week.
| Player | Starts | Comp % | Passing Yds | Rushing Yds | Total Yds | TD | INT | QB Rating | Win Pct. | Playoff Record |
| Wilson | 32 | 63.6 | 6,475 | 1,028 | 7,503 | 57 | 19 | 100.6 | .750 | 4-1 |
| Dalton | 48 | 60.9 | 11,360 | 455 | 11,815 | 87 | 49 | 85.7 | .625 | 0-3 |
| Kaepernick | 23 | 59.8 | 5,046 | 937 | 5,983 | 40 | 11 | 93.8 | .739 | 4-2 |
Focusing on Wilson first, it’s highly unlikely that the Seattle Seahawks quarterback will take a deal that’s similar in any way to what Dalton and Kaepernick received. Just two years into his career, Wilson has put up some mind-boggling numbers and has already earned a Super Bowl championship. While his new deal will likely include playoff escalators, Wilson has already proved that he can win the big game.
The same cannot be said for Dalton, who is 0-3 in the postseason with one touchdown compared to six interceptions. If Dalton leads his team deep into the playoffs or earns a Super Bowl appearance this season, he will be paid accordingly. The same escalator will be repeated throughout the duration of Dalton’s extension.
While Kaepernick has had much more success than Dalton in the playoffs, he still hasn’t won that big game. Despite coming close (literally yards) from winning Super Bowl XLVII, San Francisco’s dynamic starting quarterback could very well have cost himself some guaranteed money my turning the ball over three times in the final quarter against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game this past January. While Kaepernick was struggling to hold on to the ball, Wilson found himself on the other side of the ledger. He managed the game, made limited mistakes and did what was asked of him.
This isn’t to say Wilson is a better long-term option than Kaepernick. Rather, it’s an indication that the former did what was necessary to earn Seattle its first Lombardi Trophy. We haven’t seen that from Kaepernick in San Francisco yet. And that’s why we saw his extension structured the way it was. In reality, Kaepernick is banking on himself, while Wilson has already proved the Seahawks can bank on him.
Luck and RGIII are the two interesting characters in this equation.
Coming in as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Luck was seen as the most sure-fire quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. All he has done in two years is lead the Colts to two playoff appearances and what appears to be a stringlehold on the AFC South for years to come. He has done this without much help on the Indianapolis Colts roster and figures to continue improving as a quarterback.
Now let’s assume Indianapolis doesn’t earn a conference championship in 2014, but Luck lives up to what he has done in his first two NFL seasons. Does this mean Luck is worth any less than Wilson? What about Kaepernick and the fact that he “led” San Francisco to a conference title back in 2012? Does this mean that Luck needs to set his focus on a deal similar to what Kaepernick received this offseason?
That’s where it gets a bit convoluted. Wins are a team stat, not an individual stat. You’ve heard that saying thrown around a whole lot, especially since Joe Flacco earned his large extension following the 2012 season. While there is some truth to this, we need to differentiate between being one of the primary reasons your team has success and just being on a successful team. Not to criticize Wilson in any way, but the Seahawks were absolutely stacked last season. Any number of starting quarterbacks around the NFL would have had similar success with that team. Can we say that about Indianapolis? Remember, Luck took over a tw0-win football team and led it to a playoff berth the following season. How successful would Wilson have been in that situation?
In this, it’s rather obvious that Luck’s importance to the Colts indicates he should receive a pay day similar to or even more than what Wilson receives from Seattle. Then again, you look at the Kaepernick dynamic. His performances against the Green Bay Packers in the 2012 Divisional Playoffs or a week later in the NFC Championship game against the Atlanta Falcons elevated his stock a great deal. There are very few quarterbacks in the NFL that would have been able to perform the way Kaepernick did in his first playoff start against Green Bay or in his first road playoff start against the Falcons.
Luck is yet to have that signature postseason win and has only won one of his three career playoff starts. While he’s led Indianapolis to success in the regular season, both Kaepernick and Wilson had had success in the playoffs. And it must be noted that those two quarterbacks have pretty much played at a higher level in the second season than Luck.
Courtesy of ESPN.com: Structure of Kaepernick’s deal might make it hard for teams moving forward.
Does this mean that Kaepernick taking a more team-friendly deal should lead the way for Luck to do the same? That’s a question that will be answered in the not-so-distant future.
Jason Fitzgerald over at the Sporting News penned an article this week that focused on Dalton’s contract and how it sets the “middle class market” for quarterbacks.
Despite the fact that he (Dalton) can match the Kaepernick deal with a big playoff run in 2014, Dalton was unable to capitalize on what looked to be the minimum of the market, around $18 million a season as earned by Jay Cutler of the Chicago Bears and Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys.
Now this is where the comparisons get interesting. We can assume for a second that Wilson and Luck will receive a deal that pays them more than the “middle class market” for quarterbacks. However, we simply cannot do the same for Nick Foles and RGIII.
The sample size is much smaller, but both of these quarterbacks have had darn near the same level of playoff success as Romo and Cutler, which is to say they haven’t won a darn thing in the second season. They are younger, provide more upside and don’t have the stink that comes with a lack of playoff success over an extended period of time. Both are true wildcards in the fact that they represent tremendous upside, but have yet to prove their worth for more than a season.
Courtesy of ESPN: Foles and Kelly have a chance to be a special duo.
Foles is in somewhat the same situation Kaepernick was in entering last year. He played extremely well in less than a full season in 2013 and is the unquestioned starter for a team with rather lofty expections and a college head coach entering his second season. Whether Philadelphia even addresses a potential Foles’ extension will depend heavily on what he accomplishes this season. A division title and deep run into the playoffs could very well make an extending Foles a top priority in Philadelphia.
RGIII’s situation is much different. He had a stellar rookie campaign in 2012 before injuries and lackluster coaching caught up with him a season ago. The former No. 2 overall pick will have to at least return to 2012 form before the Redskins negotiate a lucrative long-term extension. In fact, RGIII is the prime example a the type of extension that both Dalton and Kaepernick signed this offseason, even if he plays well in his third season.
As you already know, guaranteed money is where it’s all about. As to where Cutler and Romo received guarantees based off previous performance, these young quarterbacks are going to have to find a way to negotiate more guarantees than what Dalton and Kaepernick received. However, they don’t necessarily have the negotiating power, mainly because Kaepernick’s deal is a benchmark for team success as well as upside. This is where Foles and RGIII may in fact have a hard time negotiating more lucrative deals than what the 49ers quarterback received unless their teams have tremendous success in 2014.
In any event, it’s readily apparent that NFL teams have started to structure quarterback contracts in a way that they’re going to be valued much less over the long term than what we saw under the previous collective bargaining agreemend. And teams who give in to richer deals with more guarantees will be put behind the proverbial eight ball when it comes to the salary camp.
Photo: USA Today