NBA Draft: Just How Much of a Risk is Joel Embiid?

Depending on who you listen to, former Kansas center Joel Embiid is considered the top overall player in the 2014 NBA draft, which is set to take place next month. That’s utterly ridiculous considering that two wing players with franchise-changing upside in the form of Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins are part of this draft class. 

Are NBA teams going to ignore the challenges and risks that go along with selecting a big man near the top of the NBA draft? Simply put, history doesn’t tell us a story that is too friendly to bigs going in the top five.

Sure the likes of Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard have also gone in the top five during this span. They were, however, consensus No. 1 players the year that they came out. In addition to that, the more valuable all-everything wing man that seems to make up the NBA today weren’t exactly available when those players were drafted first overall.

When Blake Griffin went first overall in 2009, James Harden was the only true scorer available that didn’t have red flags coming out. Remember, many pundits were worried about whether Stephen Curry’s smallish frame would hold up, and he was (and is) considered a true point guard…not a wing man.

Courtesy of NBA.com: Is Embiid’s potential as high as Davis’ when he came out?

When Anthony Davis took the first spot in the 2012 draft, there were some solid shooting guard options available, but none of them were considered top-pick material. Damian Lillard, who has proven to be a gem, came from a small school in Weber State. Bradley Beal, at 6’3″, was also a pure shooting guard. In fact, the first true wing that went that season was Harrison Barnes to the Golden State Warriors seven.

As for Dwight Howard, he was the consensus No. 1 overall pick months before the 2004 draft took place. The first true wing to go was Josh Childress to the Atlanta Hawks at six, followed by Luol Deng to the Chicago Bulls at seven.

The moral of this story is that when star small forwards, who can also play the two, are available, they tend to get more play near the top of the draft…and with a bit more success.

Taking Zeller and Len out of the equation for a second because we don’t know how they will turn out, those power forwards and centers listed above were selected over players who are currently controlling the NBA as I type this.

Courtesy of the Washington Post: Give me Thompson, among others, over Valanciunas every day of the year.

Klay Thompson, Alec Burke and Kawhi Leonard were all available when Toronto took Valanciunas No. 5 back in 2011. Give me any of those three players over the big man.

Thabeet is a bust of epic proportions. The No. 2 overall pick back in 2009 is averaging 2.2 points per game in his career and is currently rotting away on the Oklahoma City Thunder’ bench. He was selected over Harden, Curry and Demar DeRozan.

It is also well known who Greg Oden was picked over. And that’s the ultimate example when drawing a comparison to Embiid. Both Parker and Wiggins are considered can’t-miss prospects, while there is concern over Embiid’s health. Would the Cleveland Cavaliers seriously consider the potential of duplicating what Portland did some eight years ago? If so, they are risking missing out on a true stud that could lead the franchise with Kyrie Irving for the next decade.

While I won’t go as far to say that Embiid will turn out to be the next Oden or Parker and Wiggins will be the next Kevin Durant, this is a question that Cleveland will have to consider moving forward. The Tim Duncan’s and Dwight Howard’s of the world come about once in a generation. Do you view Embiid as that type of talent? If not, Parker and Wiggins have to be considered the safer bets.

Photo: Denny Medley, USA Today