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Top Five Reasons Why the Phillies Won’t Win 81 Games

Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Marlon Byrd, A.J. Burnett and Bobby Abreu were on the roster together in spring training.

No, this is not a post from the 2007 All-Star Game, this is the 2014 Phillies.

Fans in Philadelphia have become uneasy over the decisions that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has made in the last few seasons, and for good reason.

The 2014 season is underway and the Phillies have one win and two losses. Here are the top-five reasons why the Phillies won’t win 81 games.  

5) The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals

Each team plays the other teams in their division 18 times. That means that the Phillies will play the Braves and the Nationals 36 times.

The Atlanta Braves have a better pitching staff and lineup than the Phillies, and a few left-handers on their pitching staff who can completely neutralize the Phillies lineup. While they will not win all 18 games, there is no reason why the Phillies should win more than seven of them.

The Washington Nationals are among the best teams in the major leagues, and should present a real problem to the Phillies in all 18 of their contests. With a dominant staff of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister, the Phillies will see one of these “aces” nearly every game. Even if the Phils can hit one day, they would have to prevent Bryce Harper and company from scoring runs, which is no easy task.

 

4) Lineup Depth

Jayson Nix (runner) is tagged out. Not the depth the Phillies are looking for. Photo via Jim Cowsert, USA Today Sports Images

Jayson Nix (runner) is tagged out. Not the depth the Phillies are looking for. Photo via Jim Cowsert, USA Today Sports Images

One thing the better teams in baseball all have in common is lineup depth. The Cardinals have pure hitters from one to eight in the order, the Nationals have four or five guys who could hit 20 home runs. The Phillies have…Jayson Nix. (pictured above)

Now, this isn’t a knock on Nix, as he is a very good bench player, but he started in the second game of the year at third base. Not to mention the fact that Tony Gwynn Jr. started on opening day and John Mayberry Jr. will see plenty of at-bats. The Phillies lineup has one player who hit over .300 last season and that was Ben Revere, who hit .305 in 315 at-bats. The rest of the team will hit around .250, with the exception of Marlon Byrd who had a career year last year.

The Phillies will need more than Jayson Nix and John Mayberry to win 81 games this season.

 

3) Starting Rotation

A.J. Burnett will need to stabilize the Phillies rotation. Photo via Jim Cowsert, USA Today Sports Images

A.J. Burnett will need to stabilize the Phillies rotation. Photo via Jim Cowsert, USA Today Sports Images

Without Cole Hamels for a few weeks, the Phillies rotation includes Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, and Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona).

Now, that sounds like a good rotation, in 2009. Cliff Lee is still one of the better lefties in the major leagues, but he is getting older and struggled mightily on opening day. Lee will get hot as he always does, but that is a lot to rely on for a 35 year old. A.J. Burnett also pitched well last year, but he is 37 years old with a lot of mileage on that right arm. Rounding out the rotation for the first few weeks of April (only need four guys with the off days) are two guys who are fifth starters, at best. Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez had a 4.70 and 4.89 ERA respectively last season. A similar line can be expected from them again this year, and allowing just about five runs per start is not what Phillies fans want to see from their pitching staff.

Once Cole Hamels returns, the rotation will be given a boost, but Hamels has arm issues, which are always scary. Some pitchers with bicep tendinitis took over a year to recover. Even if Hamels returns to his former self, the Phillies rotation will be hanging on by a thread.

 

2) Bullpen

Can Jonathan Papelbon return to form? Photo via Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports Images

Can Jonathan Papelbon return to form? Photo via Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports Images

When the Phillies signed former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, that was supposed to be the dominant force in the bullpen for years to come.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, Papelbon has been far from dominant, and there is no one else in the bullpen that can be relied on each and every game. Last season, Papelbon had a misleading line of a 2.92 ERA and five wins for a closer. He blew seven games in 2013, which was among the worst in baseball. Especially for a closer making $13 million. Ryne Sandberg will have his hands full trying to put together a bullpen plan with Jake Diekman, Antonio Bastardo, Phillippe Aumont, B.J. Rosenberg and the oft-injured Mike Adams.

What is the number one reason that the Phillies will win under 81 games?

 

1) Age

The running joke for the past few seasons has been about the Phillies age? “Does Ruben Amaro hand out AARP cards at contract signings, ‘Next Saturday is walker giveaway night at the ballpark,’ and the best one yet “Next Wednesday is seniors night, where seniors stroll the bases. Watch the Phillies play for nine innings…”

The thing is, it is not a joke. The Phillies are old. Eight of the 25 players on the roster were born in the 1970s, including a whopping five of the eight hitters in the starting lineup. No disrespect to those born in the 1970’s, but chances are most of you are not considering playing major league baseball. 13 of the 25 players on the active roster are 30 years old or older. That is not exactly promising for the future.

Someone close to the Phillies said in the offseason that Ruben Amaro is still under the impression that this team is still capable of winning 90 games.

In your dreams, Ruben.

Photo: Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports Images

In addition to writing here at Sportsnaut, Josh covers fantasy sports, NFL Draft, and daily fantasy sports at sites across the internet. His work has been seen on Pro Football Focus, eDraft, XNSports, Project Roto, The Chicago Tribune, Philly.com and others.

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