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Seahawks: On the precipice of disaster or championship bound?

NFL OTAs Richard Sherman Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll Russell Wilson Seahawks

It’s fair to say that 2016 — despite an NFC West crown and wild card playoff win — was a year from hell for the Seattle Seahawks.

The offensive line was so bad that quarterback Russell Wilson got hurt early in the year and wasn’t himself the rest of the way. Running backs Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise were injured as well, though they did come back. Star safety Earl Thomas got hurt later in the season and the defense was never the same.

More recently, star cornerback Richard Sherman was the subject of trade discussions, which general manager John Schneider acknowledged openly. Oh, and the most widely-discussed article of the NFL offseason detailed the team’s chemistry issues and Sherman’s role in them. After all that, he’s still with the team.

There are two paths the 2017 version of the Seahawks can travel. They can repeat last season, in which a bad offensive line and chemistry issues detonated the season. Or, they can right the ship, survive offensive line troubles and return to being a Super Bowl contender. This team has too much talent to miss the playoffs in an NFC West featuring two of football’s worst teams, but that’s not where the bar should be set. If Seattle wants redemption for Super Bowl XLIX, it’s there for the taking.

The offensive line is still going to be the biggest problem. Seattle offensive line coach Tom Cable’s experiments have failed miserably over the past two seasons. The Seahawks ranked 26th in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate last season. However, the team clearly started to move on from the idea of converting failed defensive linemen to offensive linemen by drafting Ethan Pocic in the second round. Pocic, an LSU product, figures to play left guard this season — a result of Luke Joeckel moving to tackle after George Fant’s injury. He fits well in Seattle’s scheme, which largely features an inside zone run game. Though Pocic is inconsistent, he has the technique to succeed. There will be growing pains, but that shouldn’t be a huge problem given what the Seahawks had at the position last season. Center Justin Britt is perhaps the only reliable player on this line. He didn’t allow a sack and blew just nine blocks in total last season, per FOA.

From there, things go downhill fast. Joeckel played just four games last season. The former first round pick’s best ever PFF grade in a full season: 52.7 in 2015. The right side of the line could be a total disaster. Tackle Germain Ifedi is getting his lunch eaten against preseason scrubs. He also ranked in the bottom five in blown blocks among guards last season, per FOA. Newly acquired right guard Oday Aboushi has played just 11 games in the past two seasons and not particularly well, with a PFF grade of 45.5 in 2016.

If Seattle’s offense is going to overcome that awful offensive line, the first step is a healthy Russell Wilson. Their quarterback wasn’t himself last season, throwing a career-high 11 interceptions and ranking 14th in DYAR. Wilson also rushed for a career low 259 yards. That was less a result of diminished ability than it was injury. If Wilson can be the freewheeling, pocket-breaking, dart-thrower we know he is, the Seahawks will have a pretty good aerial attack.

Their receiving corps has quietly become one of the better groups in the league. Doug Baldwin is an expert route runner and went for 1,128 yards on 94 receptions last season. He ranked eighth among receivers in DVOA. If Tyler Lockett is healthy, he’s a perennial downfield threat. Ditto for Paul Richardson. The two averaged 14.6 and 13.7 yards per reception last season. Expect to see Richardson on the field more often. Seattle also drafted Amara Darboh out of Michigan in the third round. Darboh is a strong route runner who flashed the ability to make tough catches in big spots during his time in Ann Arbor. He could see a lot of playing time this season, relegating Jermaine Kearse to the bench. Tight end Jimmy Graham is one of the best downfield threats in the league at his position. Graham went for 923 yards on 65 receptions last season, ranking second among tight ends in DYAR. Including Kearse, there are six players Wilson should feel good about throwing to in this receiving corps.

After signing Eddie Lacy, the Seahawks have three decent running backs. The only question is if any of them can stay healthy. Thomas Rawls played just nine games last season and struggled to return from the injury that ended his 2015 season. However, he’s one of the most well-equipped backs in football to play behind this line. Two seasons ago, Rawls ran through defenders like paper. He has great ability after contact, perhaps the most important attribute to consider for a running back on this team. Lacy figures to get a share of carries as well. He played just five games in 2016, but looked like an entirely different player than in his disastrous ’15 season. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and had a 20.4 percent DVOA in those five games. In addition to those two, C.J. Prosise is likely to see plenty of action on third down. A third round pick in 2016, Prosise was an absolute beast for six games before he got hurt. In addition to averaging 5.7 yards per carry, the Notre Dame product was a factor in the passing game as well. He had 17 receptions for 208 yards before going down. If the Seahawks can’t find a running game with these three guys, it’s hard to know what else they can do.

Defensively, the questions all have to do with chemistry and injuries. In terms of personnel it’s hard to find a problem.

Richard Sherman

The secondary is mostly full of familiar faces. Free safety Earl Thomas is back healthy, a huge development for a defense which fell off a cliff without him. To call Thomas the linchpin of this defense would be an understatement. When he played last season, Seattle had a -7.0 percent pass defense DVOA. Without him, that number rocketed to 25.9 percent, per Football Outsiders’ Almanac. Manning the two-thirds of the field next to Thomas in Seattle’s Cover-3 will be Richard Sherman and the newly acquired Tramaine Brock. Sherman, obviously, is one of the best corners in football. He ranked 22nd at the position with a 54 percent success rate, per FOA, and had an 84.4 PFF grade. As for Brock, the former 49er had an 81.7 grade along with a 53 percent success rate, per FOA.

Expect rookie Shaquill Griffin to get some snaps on the outside as well. A third round pick out of Central Florida, Griffin won’t be a star instantly, but has some attributes that make him an interesting pick for the long term. A ball hawk with strong athletic ability, he can go stride for stride with receivers. However, his long speed isn’t good enough and Griffin has a tendency to lose inside — a potential death knell if it goes unfixed.

At nickel back, Jeremy Lane struggled last season, posting a 46 percent success rate and allowing 8.5 adjusted yards per target according to FOA. Alongside Thomas at safety, Kam Chancellor ranked third at the position with a 91.2 PFF grade last season. Chancellor was also top-five in both success rate and adjusted yards per target, according to FOA.

At linebacker, things should be great so long as K.J. Wright’s ankle injury doesn’t cause him to miss time in the regular season. Wright ranked eighth at the position in PFF grading last season with an 86.0 mark. He also had an absurd 62 percent success rate in coverage and allowed only 5.9 adjusted yards per target. In the middle, Bobby Wagner was even better. He had a 90.8 PFF grade and was the catalyst behind Seattle’s success on the second level in the running game. The Seahawks ranked sixth in second level yardage on defense last season, somehow their worst mark in the last three years. Michael Wilhoite will likely be the third linebacker when Seattle is in base. Though not a star player by any stretch of the imagination, Wilhoite is good enough to get the job done. He gave up just 5.2 adjusted yards per target in coverage last season.

The defensive line took a hit with Malik McDowell’s injury. It looks like the second round pick could be out for a while, perhaps even the year. That injury means Seattle could have problems in the middle unless second-year player Jarran Reed develops quickly. Reed struggled in his rookie season to the tune of a 68 percent run stop rate and only 12.5 pressures, per FOA. Next to him, Athyba Rubin had an identical 68 percent run stop rate, per FOA, and did even less while rushing the passer.

However, what the Seahawks may lack in the middle, they make up for on the edge. Michael Bennett is a bona-fide superstar who had a 94.7 PFF run defense grade last season. Bennett’s 86 percent run stop rate was eighth among edge rushers and his 0.5 average rushing yards per tackle ranked fourth, per FOA. Across from him, Cliff Avril had an 82 percent run stop rate and provided the oomph as a pass rusher, putting up 11.5 sacks, 14 hits and 39 hurries, per FOA. 24-year old standout Frank Clark will rotate in as a pass rusher as well. Clark had 10.0 sacks, seven hits and 22 hurries last season, per FOA. At his age, Clark is only going to get better.

The Seahawks still possess a metric ton of talent. They should cruise to the NFC West and contend for a Super Bowl. Yet, if the offensive line falls apart again and the ESPN exposè looms into the regular season, it could signal the championship window shutting on Seattle.

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