5. Boston Red Sox
The skepticism around the Red Sox begins with the starting rotation.
How will David Price’s health hold up? He’s already going to miss an early portion of the season with an injury. But even when he’s healthy, a good season from Price can’t be taken for granted.
Price struggled in his first season with Boston, posting a 3.99 ERA and 1.204 WHIP — both the second-worst totals of his career. On its own, that’s not terribly alarming. Bad seasons do happen, after all. But, per Fangraphs, the fastball that averaged better than 94 mph in 2015 was below 93 in 2016. On any given pitch, one mph means essentially nothing. But for a 31-year-old pitcher, the full season drop can’t be ignored, especially when it coincides with a dip in productivity.
It doesn’t stop with Price, either. Despite Kate Upton’s objections, Rick Porcello won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016. The problem? His 2016 success came from seemingly out of nowhere.
Did Rick Porcello turn a corner in 2016? Or did he have a great season not likely to be replicated? pic.twitter.com/ScNPqpz5Og
— Sportsnaut (@Sportsnaut) March 29, 2017
He went from a middle of the rotation guy to ace in one season. It’s a nice story, but not unlike Daniel Murphy, it’s fair to wonder if at least some regression is on its way in 2017.
The third head in the Red Sox decorated triumvirate belongs to Chris Sale. And while his numbers don’t point to any regression, we can’t help but remember a few incidents a season ago. Sale was incredibly annoyed when the Chicago White Sox essentially made Adam LaRoche opt for retirement over not having his son with him. Later in the year, he took a knife to Chicago’s 1970’s throwbacks and was sent home from his start.
Between the fans and media, Boston is a notorious pressure cooker that can get under the skin of even the most poised athletes.
Offensively, there’s less reason to question the Red Sox. Still, we can’t completely neglect that for the first time since 2002, Boston will open its season without David Ortiz. The Red Sox are also going to be relying on Pablo Sandoval, who’s been an unmitigated bust for the last two years, at third base.
Boston is rich with decorated talent. But an awful lot can go wrong with this team.