Five hyped MLB teams destined to fail

1. Washington Nationals

While they haven’t enjoyed the same postseason success, the Nationals have been on a similar track as the San Francisco Giants. In the even numbered years, they’ve been in the playoffs. In the odd years, they’ve been golfing in October.

But 2017 being an odd numbered year is only a minor reason for our skepticism.

The Nats won 95 games in 2016. One of the big reasons why was Daniel Murphy, who had a stellar campaign and finished second in MVP voting. But while Murphy was certainly no slouch before 2016 it was, by far, a career year.

Having a career year at 31 is not unheard of. But not many players perform at a significantly higher level in their 30’s than they did in their 20’s. Murphy may have another good year, but some regression is in the cards.

Admittedly, there’s a hole in that logic.

Murphy had a great year in 2016 and indeed may regress. But Bryce Harper had a down year in 2016. Murphy’s regression could be offset (and then some) if Harper regains his 2015 form.

Theoretically that’s true, but we also have to remember how much 2015 impacted Harper’s career stats.

Harper is a .279/.382/.501 career hitter. But if we eliminate 2015, that slash line falls to .264/.357/.458. Not a slouch by any means, but far from an MVP. The 2015 season also accounted for nearly 35 percent of his career home runs, a shade under 30 percent of his career RBI and nearly 29 percent of his runs scored.

Again, that’s not to say that Harper is a bad player. But the compiled numbers in his five-year career have been significantly aided by one of those seasons. Are we really ready to bank on another 2015?

On top of that, Stephen Strasburg has topped 200 innings only once in his career. Max Scherzer’s preseason injury seems okay now, but it’s not something that can be ignored.

Washington has immense talent. But looking at the team a little deeper gives us reasons for skepticism as well.