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Will NFL teams turn their backs on Adrian Peterson?

Dec 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Colts defeated the Vikings 34-6. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Short of future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson restructuring his contract to take less cash, one of the greatest players in Minnesota Vikings history will hit free agency next month.

It’s a harsh reality for Peterson, who has played in a grand total of 20 games since the end of the 2013 season. Minnesota doesn’t view the soon-to-be 32-year-old back as valuable enough to keep on at his current price tag. And for good reason. Peterson is set to count $18 million against the cap in 2017, money he’s unlikely to ever see.

With a recent track record of injuries and after sitting out 15 games during the 2015 season due to a child abuse case, Peterson will hit the open market at the worst possible time. He’s no longer considered one of the top backs in the NFL. Running backs themselves are considered less valuable than ever before. And his age is no laughing matter.

Consider this: Of the 12 teams that took part in the playoffs this past season, only the Dallas Cowboys boasted a running back that was selected in the first round. In fact, LeGarrette Blount, Spencer Ware and Thomas Rawls were all drafted in the seventh round or went undrafted completely. Ty Montgomery of the Green Bay Packers started the season as a wide receiver before being moved to running back.

This is a clear indication that teams don’t necessarily view running backs in the same light as they used to. It’s also magnified with Peterson due to his age, off-field history and track record with injuries.

Peterson himself has seemingly hinted that he’d like to join the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys. Though, he’s reportedly listed about a handful of teams that he’d like to sign with (more on that here).

The issue here is that teams in the market for a running back are more likely to fill that hole through the draft. It gives them a long-term option while doling out a lot less cash. That’s a quandary even top-end running backs have found on the open market recently.

Coming off two consecutive 1,200-plus total yard seasons with the Miami Dolphins, Lamar Miller signed a four-year, $26 million contract with Houston last offseason. That deal included just $14 million in guaranteed money. This, despite the fact that Miller was just 24 years old and had proven himself to be healthy throughout his career. That was the top of the free-agent market for running backs. A total of $14 million guaranteed.

Let’s assume for a second that the Pittsburgh Steelers place the franchise tag on Le’Veon Bell. That would leave Peterson in a group with LeGarrette Blount, Eddie Lacy and Latavius Murray as the best potential free agent running backs. Not a great group by any stretch. Though, it’s extremely possible that Peterson will find himself the most highly-coveted of the group.

Unfortunately, there’s also a scenario in play here that suggests Peterson won’t be an attractive option at all.

The 2017 NFL Draft class at running back is among the best in recent history. It includes potential first-round picks Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. A bit further down in the pecking order, Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey and Tennessee’s Alvin Kamara could potentially be had on Day 2.

That’s the group Peterson is fighting for attention with, not his fellow impending veteran free agent running backs. It’s also reasonable to believe that all four of these youngsters could be better options for teams in need of a running back.

It truly is an amazing thing to look at. Peterson is just one year removed from leading the NFL in rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He’s also considered one of the best running backs of the modern era. But as we continue to see in today’s NFL, it’s all about recency bias.

As CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora noted recently, Peterson himself just hasn’t been that good as of late. Here’s a guy that’s put up just 416 rushing yards and is averaging 2.9 yards per attempt in his past eight games, a span that dates back to the 2015 campaign.

When we add that into the mix with his age, injury history and off-field issues, there’s definitely a scenario in play that suggests Peterson won’t be highly regarded in free agency.

If we then look the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos, Washington Redskins and New York Giants as the teams most likely to be checking in on running backs, this makes Peterson’s situation even more difficult. Simply put, there’s not a strong market at this position. It’s all about supply and demand. And in reality, demand for Peterson might not be there.

That could lead the NFL to turning its back on one of the finest running backs the game has ever seen.

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