Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols chase 3,000 hits
Have you heard of the “Favorite Toy” formula developed by Bill James?
Sounds weird, right? Well, it’s not. It’s actually one of the coolest things in baseball, and I wrote about it last month when trying to estimate Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre’s chances of hitting the 3,000 hit mark this year. And one has a greater chance than the other.
Adrian Beltre’s percentages of hitting the 3,000 hit mark are astronomical. After a few clicks of the calculator and a lot of scratch paper, it was determined the 37-year-old has a 247-percent chance of hitting the goal. This makes sense, considering he’s only 58 hits shy.
Pujols still has a decent chance of landing in the prestigious club. The 10-time All-Star is 175 hits shy of getting those 3,000 hits, so he is in the realm of a 42-percent chance. He’s also not 100% on schedule to start on Opening Day with an injury that set him back.
Either way, history will be made this year, and it will probably come from the Texas Rangers third baseman.