Generally speaking, it’s not all that hard to separate the pretenders from contenders from year to year in the NFL. Yes, we see surprises every season, but it’s usually easy to figure out which teams have the best chances of winning and which do not.
But then there’s a group of teams that always sits in the middle — they could either be really good or they could stink up the joint.
That’s the group we’re going to focus on here.
These upcoming teams have the biggest boom/bust potential in the NFL heading into the 2016 season.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster is gone. He’s been replaced by a guy in Lamar Miller who has loads of potential. The Texans also signed another guy with a ton of potential (they hope) in quarterback Brock Osweiler. If both of these young players can play to the expectations the franchise has for them, then the sky is the limit to what it does this year.
A dynamic, balanced offense paired with J.J. Watt and Co. on the defensive side of the ball is a scary combination.
But just as scary is how bad things could look at the end of the year if Miller and Osweiler don’t earn their paychecks.
Another bad offensive campaign would doom Houston to another mediocre season, at best.
And given how much the Texans have relied on Watt to be Captain America, one can only imagine how bad things could get if he were to become injured at some point.
The Texans have so much riding on potential and the unknown this season. Is the future potentially bright? Absolutely. But things could shift the other way in a hurry, just as easily.
Atlanta Falcons
Despite the defensive mind of head coach Dan Quinn, Atlanta’s defense wasn’t great last year.
First-round pick Vic Beasley wasn’t altogether comfortable on the edge, so he was moved to outside linebacker this year. The team continues to tinker with its defense this offseason, adding surprising first-round pick Keanu Neal to fill the void at strong safety. Another guy being shifted around is defensive lineman Ra’Shede Hageman, who is moving to defensive end.
Clearly, the defense is still a work in progress.
Offensively, will we see Matt Ryan rebound from a poor season in 2015, or was what we saw last year but a foreshadowing of things to come? Will Devonta Freeman continue ascending, or was he a one-hit wonder? Did the Falcons finally find some answers to their offensive line, or will it be a liability again?
So many questions right now yet to be answered with this team. That’s why it should not be a surprise if the Falcons go 6-10 or 11-5 this year.
San Diego Chargers
Just how much longer can anyone expect Philip Rivers to last playing behind a porous offensive line? All it takes is one big hit to end a career prematurely, and he’s taken his fair share. We’ve already predicted Rivers’ star will fade this upcoming season, and if it does, San Diego will be making another top-five pick in 2017.
However, if Rivers continues to play at a high level, and if Melvin Gordon’s rookie season was only a fluke, then the offense will be gangbusters. The additions of Travis Benjamin and tight end Hunter Henley will only make it more dangerous.
On the other side of the ball, it’s going to be fascinating to see if the acquisition of Joey Bosa (No. 3 overall in the draft) will turn out well or if he’ll struggle out of position as a defensive end in the team’s 3-4 alignment. San Diego gave up a lot of yards and points last year, and the secondary remains an area of weakness.
Detroit Lions
The Lions could potentially be better on offense this year without Calvin Johnson than they were last year with him on the field. Too often, Matthew Stafford forced balls that has no business being thrown into double- and triple-coverage so he could connect with Johnson. Now he’ll have to let the game come to him.
The Lions have done solid work in recent years building up an offensive line, too, capping it off by adding right tackle Taylor Decker. Get the running game going (Lions fans, it really could finally happen this year) and things will start falling into place.
Defensively, things could come together again after a down year in 2015. Cornerback Darius Slay is coming on strong, as is the rest of the secondary with Glover Quin as the leader. If Ezekiel Ansah can get some help bringing pressure off the edge, this could be a dominant unit.
Of course, it’s the Lions we’re talking about, and absolutely nobody will be surprised if they finish the year at the bottom of the NFC North. The way they finished last year strong, though, this scribe is leaning the other way.
New York Jets
In truth, this boils down to one question. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick be back with the Jets?
If Fitzpatrick signs a contract before the start of training camp, then it’s not crazy to think the Jets’ offense could be even better than it was last season. Adding running back Matt Forte appears to be a stroke of genius. He’s a three-down back who could still have a lot to contribute.
There is a report that indicates Fitzpatrick will be back on a one-year deal (more on that here). But if New York does enter the 2016 campaign with Geno Smith, Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg behind center, kiss the season goodbye.
Even with Fitzpatrick, there is no guarantee the Jets will be as potent offensively in 2016 as they were last year. It was a career year for Fitzmagic, and he still completed less than 60 percent of his passes.
Yes, the Jets feature one of the best defenses in the land, but an offense without a quarterback is just stuck in the mud.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The future appears to be bright for the Jaguars, who could be the best in the AFC South this upcoming season.
The offense looks set to get even better, thanks to the addition of running back Chris Ivory. Add him to the mix with Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and tight end Julius Randle and you have a very nice nucleus of talent to build on.
The defense looks to have improved by leaps and bounds as well — on paper, at least. The addition of free agents Malik Jackson and Tashaun Gipson, rookies Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, combined with the return of Dante Fowler Jr. gives Jacksonville a tremendous core of young talent at all three levels.
But what if Bortles takes a step back? What if Jackson and Gipson turn out to be free-agent busts? What if Ramsey does not recover from his knee injury as quickly as he’s supposed to, or what if Jack’s knee deteriorates quicker than anticipated? So much could still go wrong with this up-and-coming squad.
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins fans should be excited about the upcoming season.
With new head coach Adam Gase already proven as an NFL-caliber offensive mind, it’s not hard to imagine Ryan Tannehill might finally reach his full potential. He has the weapons to succeed, with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and rookie speed racer Jakeem Grant.
But the offensive line could still be an issue, the Dolphins appear resigned to hand the starting running back job to Jay Ajayi, whose knees aren’t exactly in stellar shape, and the defense isn’t getting any younger up front.
Oh, and there is a possibility we’ve already seen Tannehill’s best, in which case the Dolphins will be screwed, regardless of what else happens in 2016.
New Orleans Saints
Defensively, it should be expected that the Saints will struggle to defend the pass. But this isn’t a new development.
But a couple of solid additions up front in rookies Sheldon Rankins and David Onyemata could make a huge difference, and there really isn’t anywhere to go but up after the past two seasons under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, now with his brother in Buffalo.
Offensively, the Saints could flourish once again. Provided Brees remains upright all year, he’s got a lineup of playmakers that he’ll inevitably turn into fantasy football stars. The additions of Michael Thomas (rookie out of Ohio State) and Coby Fleener should only add to the potency of this attack. And Brandin Cooks is straight fire.
But at this point, given the hits Brees has endured over the years, it seems like only a matter of time before his body finally gives out. And the Saints have nobody behind him that will frighten opposing defenses. With that in mind the Saints could be this year’s 2015 Cowboys.