Coming off their first two-game losing streak of the season, the defending champion Golden State Warriors find themselves on the verge of being eliminated by the Oklahoma City Thunder.
It’s not that Golden State lost two games in Oklahoma City. After all, the Thunder put up the third-best home record during the regular season.
Instead, it’s all about how they lost these two games. Showing a lack of composure we haven’t seen from the Warriors in two years under Steve Kerr, there’s a mental breakdown on the verge of taking place in Oakland.
This breakdown includes constant complaining to the officials, a lack of ability to get back on defense in transition and some downright careless turnovers. Three things that haven’t defined the Warriors during their historical two-year run.
Golden State now looks to fend off elimination at home in Game 5 on Thursday.
Good news, Warriors fans: Two of the final three are at home.
Bad news: Two of those might not be played.
— Vincent Frank (@VincentFrankNFL) May 25, 2016
It does so without much confidence that it can turn things around against a Thunder team that’s playing the best basketball of any in the Association this season, the 73-win regular season version of the Warriors included.
How can Golden State fend off elimination and put pressure on the Thunder to win Game 6 at home while facing the possibility of having to travel back to Oakland for a decisive Game 7?
There’s a lot that’s not working in Golden State’s favor. There’s also a false sense that the Warriors are completely done here.
Both of these things are false truths. In a vacuum, they are correct. But when adding one plus one, there’s a heck of a lot more to look.
At one point in the past two games, each member of the Warriors’ starting five has failed to get back on defense while arguing a questionable call. We understand officiating has been horrid in the playoffs, but this isn’t acceptable.
It’s this type of frustration and/or lack of mental toughness that has defined the Warriors over the past two games.
If Golden State wants to extend this series past five games and potentially pull off a major comeback, it is going to need to change this in short order.
Speaking of mental toughness, the Warriors have also lost a vast majority of 50/50 balls to Oklahoma City over the past two games. This isn’t necessarily a reflection of a lack of hustle, though that could be one of the issues.
Instead, it seems that the Warriors don’t have the same urgency as the Thunder.
That might work against less-than-stellar competition in the regular season, but it’s going to come back to bite you in the back end come playoff time.
A lack of transition defense and some sort of lack of urgency when it comes to loose balls. That’s a ton of points going in Oklahoma City’s favor thus far in this series. It has also changed any sort of momentum Golden State might have found in the past two outings.
While Golden State’s lack of defense in transition has been impacted by its players arguing questionable calls, there’s a bigger issue at hand here.
The Warriors have turned it over 48 times in their three losses in this series, including a ridiculous 21 times in Game 4. In their one win, the Warriors turned it over just 12 times.
It’s not a coincidence that Oklahoma converted only 13 fast break points in Golden State’s sole win in the series. In the Thunder’s three wins, they are averaging 30 points in transition. The correlation here is real.
Simply due to the fast-paced offensive mentality and focus on passing the ball in Oakland, the Warriors ranked in the bottom 10 in turnovers during the regular season.
It’s how Golden State is turning the ball over that’s causing the major issues here. Unforced errors, dumb mistakes in transition and bad passes in the half-court set.
Turning it over while making the extra pass within the philosophy of the offense is one thing. Kerr and Co. will accept those mistakes. Mental errors, on the other hand, are not acceptable.
Also at issue here is a lack of ball movement on offense, which reinforces the turnover-prone problem. Golden State was historically good at dishing out assists during the regular year, compiling 30-plus helpers in nearly half its regular season games.
Through five games in the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors are averaging just 17.2 assists. In fact, in the team’s two losses in Oklahoma City, Golden State dished out a total of 34 assists.
That was a number that defined the team on a good night during its record-breaking regular season.
We can get into Draymond Green’s struggles (2-of-16 shooting, 10 turnovers and a plus minus of -73 the past two games). That’s fine and dandy. We can also look at Stephen Curry’s struggles hitting the uncontested shot:
SportVu isn't conveying tougher shots for Curry. Also says he's 13-of-37 on open 3s, 3-of-11 on wide open 3s https://t.co/fJubruWtTj
— Ethan Strauss (@SherwoodStrauss) May 25, 2016
That’s also fine.
Missing shots happens in the NBA. There’s little reason to believe Curry will continue to struggle at this clip in Game 5 and moving forward in the series.
In fact, we have to expect the two-time reigning MVP to put up a heck of a performance in Oakland on Thursday night.
As it relates to Green, he’s been humbled by what’s happened over the past two games:
“I don’t think there was any (aftereffect in Game 4). I was just awful. I usually thrive in those situations. The most frustrating thing for me is those are the situations that I have thrived on. Those are the situations I’ve made my name off of,” Green said on Wednesday, via ESPN. “That’s who I am. That’s why I am who I am because of situations like that. And the most frustrating thing in the world is not being able to come through off the situation.”
While definitely humbled, one thing Green hasn’t had to deal with throughout both his college and NBA careers is losing.
His Michigan State Spartans posted a 107-39 record during Green’s four-year stay in Michigan State, earning two trips to the Final 4 in the process. Since joining Golden State, Green has seen his Warriors post a .787 regular season winning percentage while averaging 64.5 wins per season.
In the NBA, where professionalism takes precedence more so than in any other sport, it’s not as much about losing as it is about how you respond to losses. Green hasn’t learned how to respond. That’s going to have to change come Thursday night in Oakland.
More than not hitting shots, something that will take care of itself, the Warriors need to get back to the basics here.
They need the ball to be hopping around the court on offense. They need to get back on transition. They must control the tempo. And yes, the hustle needs to be there in front of their home crowd.
Here’s a team that boasts a 94-7 record at home in two seasons under Kerr. It can get right back in the series with another stellar outing in front of the faithful in Oakland.
That would put a ton of pressure on Oklahoma City to win Game 6 at home on Saturday in order to avoid a do-or-die Game 7 outing back in California on Monday. And as we have seen over the past several years, the Thunder tend to struggle in those pressure-packed situations.
For the Warriors, it’s about taking this one game at a time. That’s all you can do when you are facing elimination. But let’s not count this team out.
You don’t win 73 games on accident. You don’t fail to lose two consecutive games until the Western Conference Finals on accident.
If there’s one team in the modern history of the Association that can come back from a 3-1 series deficit it’s the Warriors. They now just need to get back to the basics.