Every NFL team makes its draft picks based on how a prospect projects years down the road. For some of the top clubs, it isn’t necessarily about immediate production. For others, that immediate production is a necessity.
And while prospects that tend to start out strong out of the gate may not be the best players five years down the road, it’s a good bet that they will have strong careers.
Here is a look at five players from the 2015 NFL draft set to make an instant impact.
1. Melvin Gordon, Running Back, San Diego Chargers
And odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of Year, from @BovadaLV: Melvin Gordon 13:2, Jameis Winston 7:1, Marcus Mariota 7:1, Amari Cooper 15:2.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) May 5, 2015
Teams don’t select a running back in the first round without the expectation of immediate production. Teams definitely don’t trade up for a running back on Day 1 for him to ride the pine as a rookie. With Gordon now in the fold, it’s a pretty darn good bet that he will be the three-down running back out of the gate. If so, watch out.
San Diego’s holdover running backs from last season, Branden Oliver, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead, combined for less than 850 yards on 260 attempts. We don’t need to get our calculators out to realize that’s not good. The addition of guard Orlando Franklin in free agency from the division-rival Denver Broncos could also be huge here. He graded out among the top-13 guards in the NFL in run blocking last season (via Pro Football Focus, subscription required).
If Gordon gets the necessary reps, there’s no real reason to believe he won’t be able to put up over 1,500 rushing yards and double-digit scores as a rookie.
2. Jameis Winston, Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneeers
Winston will make his rookie mistakes in 2015. This much is a certainty. However, he’s in the best position to succeed as a first-year signal caller since Andrew Luck with the Indianapolis Colts back in 2012. The Buccaneers have enough weapons to overcome most of what will be early struggles from Winston. More than that, Winston boasts enough pure quarterbacking talent to be an effective first-year quarterback. He has the combination of pocket awareness, field vision, arm strength and accuracy that made him the first pick in the draft.
As with every rookie signal caller, it’s going to be all about making that transition from college to the pros. In this, the likes of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson at wide receiver is going to be absolutely huge. They will provide the former Heisman winner the big-bodied targets that he desperately needs.
The other thing to look at here is Tampa Bay’s talent at running back. The likes of Charles Sims, Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey should provide the necessary balance to help Winston succeed out of the gate. Look for close to 4,000 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and interception numbers in the high teens.
3. Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: The Raiders now have a true No. 1 for Derek Carr.
There is little doubt that Cooper will be one of Oakland’s two starting receivers as a rookie. The question then becomes whether he will take over for Michael Crabtree as Derek Carr’s primary target. If that happens, we could be looking at yet another 1,000-yard season from a rookie receiver.
The talent vacuum that Cooper fills in Oakland is massive. Without him, the team might have had one starter-caliber pass catcher in Crabtree and a bunch of third/fourth options. This is an indication that the Alabama product will likely be highly targeted. In his last season at Alabama, against SEC competition, Cooper caught nearly 70 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. He’s about as consistent as it gets for a rookie receiver. Look for something to the tune of 80 receptions for 1,100 yards in 2015.
4. Laken Tomlinson, Guard, Detroit Lions
Detroit may have acquired veteran Manny Ramirez in the deal that enabled it to move down to get Tomlinson in the first round of the draft. However, there’s no realistic reason to believe that the rookie won’t start out of the gate. Much like the running back position, teams don’t select guards on Day 1 without expecting immediate production.
In Tomlinson, the Lions have a mauler of an interior lineman that has the necessary fundamentals to start out of the gate.
If you wanted a power-blocking right guard in the draft, there was no one better than Laken Tomlinson,” Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said of the selection.
Considering Detroit’s offensive line ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in run blocking last season (via Pro Football Focus, subscription required), this was a major need for the team. With fellow rookie Ameer Abdullah slated to get a ton of touches at running back, the combination of Tomlinson and all-everything guard Larry Warford could soon by dominating opposing NFC North defenses.
5. Vic Beasley, EDGE, Atlanta Falcons
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: The addition of Vic Beasley is huge for Atlanta.
Talk about filling a need and acquiring tremendous value. When Beasley fell to the Falcons at eighth overall in the recent draft, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and new head coach Dan Quinn were probably jumping for joy. He’s going to be a tremendous fit in Atlanta’s hybrid defensive front as a LEO, even as a rookie. Blessed with elite-level pass-rush skills, Beasley is also among the most seasoned edge rushers in the entire draft class.
Beasley’s easily the best athlete among the edge rusher,” NFL Media’s Mike Mayock said during the draft. “On Day 1, I think he’s going to be a situational pass rusher while he learns to set the edge.
And that’s exactly what the Falcons need. They don’t have that one dynamic pass-rush threat that forces quarterbacks into rushing their passes and making mistakes. Beasley can be that guy out of the gate. Expect a similar role to what we saw from Aldon Smith with the San Francisco 49ers in 2011. If so, look for 10-plus sacks as a rookie.
Photo: USA Today Sports