Eight NFL teams will battle for four spots in their respective conference’s title game. Each game features one key that will inch one team closer to that dream of a Super Bowl title next month in Arizona. The other team in each of these key matchups will join the rest of the NFL in picking up the pieces and attempting to rebuild and retool in the offseason.
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Each signal-caller featured here has what it takes to lead his respective team to championship weekend. Of the eight teams remaining, five are led by quarterbacks with a Super Bowl ring—that’s a record. Now add into account that all four quarterbacks who are hosting games this weekend have won it all, and the road teams find themselves behind the proverbial eight-ball.
Here are the biggest keys to Divisional Weekend.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Key: Can Joe Flacco go head-to-head with Tom Brady Again?
How good is Joe Flacco? The former first-round pick out of Delaware has teetered between game-manager and elite throughout his entire seven-year career. But of late, he has been closer to the latter than the former when the calendar flips to January.
Among quarterbacks who have started at least four playoff games and have attempted 100-plus passes since 2010, Flacco has the highest passer rating in the league in the postseason.
In his career, Baltimore has played Brady’s Patriots three times in the postseason. Two of the primary reasons that Flacco isn’t 3-0 in his playoff career against New England’s signal caller was a dropped pass by Lee Evans and a missed field goal by Billy Cundiff in the 2011 AFC Championship game.
As it is, Flacco is 2-1 against Brady in his playoff career. Both of those wins have come against the Patriots in New England. If Flacco can perform better than Brady once again on Saturday, Baltimore should be able to move on.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Key: Can Carolina contain Russell Wilson’s legs in the first half?
Seattle’s rush offense led the NFL this season with an average of 5.3 yards per carry. That’s the 10th-highest team average since 1976.
Much of Seattle’s success can obviously be attributed to All-Pro running back Marshawn Lynch, who finished fourth in rushing this season with 1,306 yards. But when breaking down the numbers, quarterback Russell Wilson—not Lynch—had a bigger impact in the run game in 2014. The reason?
Wilson was unstoppable in the first half of Seattle’s 12 wins; in its four losses, he was held in check. Here’s a breakdown of Wilson and Lynch’s rushing totals in wins and losses:
You have to figure inside linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis will take turns spying Wilson throughout the game. That bodes well for Carolina, as the pair are two of the quickest, most athletic linebackers in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Key: Stop a quarterback… Please?
It’s Tony Romo, the most underrated quarterback in the NFL today, against Aaron Rodgers, the league’s best quarterback. In a quarterback-driven league, this is the mecca of all games this weekend.
Rodgers has played out of his mind at home of late, while Romo led his Cowboys to an undefeated road record in 2014 and put the hurt on opposing defenses.
Aaron Rodgers last 13 regular season home starts?
36 touchdowns, zero interceptions…
— Vincent Frank (@VincentFrankNFL) January 7, 2015
(That’s just ridiculous.)
Now let’s look at Romo’s performance on the road this season compared to what Rodgers has done at home.
Rodgers’ 133.2 home passer rating this season is an NFL record. Romo’s 121.8 road rating is the fourth-highest ever recorded. Something has to give, and it may be the weather.
Here is a breakdown of the quarterbacks in outdoor games featuring temperatures at or below freezing. In case you’re unaware, the forecast for Sunday’s game calls for a high of 21 in Green Bay:
(Has “ridiculous” been mentioned yet?)
Advantage, Rodgers.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Key: Who can get more pressure on the opposing quarterback?
It’s difficult to argue against Peyton Manning being the best quarterback of all-time. It can be done, but this is neither the time nor the place to discuss that. It can also be argued Andrew Luck is the best quarterback drafted since Manning.
But again, not the time or place.
What cannot be argued is the fact that these quarterbacks were eerily similar performers in 2014 when comparing statistics under pressure. The stats from the two tables below are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Note the passer ratings in both instances. Uncanny:
The key to this game will be which defense can pressure the opposing quarterback into making mistakes.
It’s no secret how the Broncos pressure the quarterback. Their two stud defenders on the edge, defensive end DeMarcus Ware and linebacker Von Miller, combined for 24 sacks and 124 total pressures in the regular season. (That’s a lot in case you’re new to the game.)
On the other hand, Indianapolis has put up a pressure-by-committee mentality all season for the simple fact they don’t have a premier edge-rusher. A year after leading the NFL with 19.5 sacks, five-time Pro Bowler Robert Mathis missed all of 2014 thanks, first, to a four-game suspension, and then a torn Achilles tendon he suffered while working out on his own during said suspension.